Nate Cohn

We talk all the time about his MAGA base.

But what wins the voters in the middle, whether it's working class white voters in Ohio or working class Latino voters in the Rio Grande or the young voters that were dissatisfied?

The economy is really critical to what gets him over the top.

So at least for now, the state of the economy as it is, we're kind of muddling along, right?

We're not in some deep recession, but these aren't great prosperous times either.

Muddling along doesn't really threaten his base at this point, but I think it makes it really hard for him to win back the voters that have put him over the top in recent elections.

I think that's reasonable to expect.

You know, the poll right now shows Democrats are up two on the question of whether they vote for Democrats or Republicans in the midterm election.

It's worth noting that's quite a bit better than the result of the 2024 election for Democrats.

The Republicans won by three.

So this is a meaningful improvement.

It would probably be enough for them to retake the House.

It's also not an extraordinary performance, right?

You know, they're not winning by seven or eight points like they were in twenty eighteen.

I will point out also that the Democrats have made their biggest gains compared to 2024 among young and non-white voters, the voters that swung most towards Donald Trump in 2024 because of the bad economy.

That's the group that in the poll looks like it's lurching back towards Democrats.

And the economy, I think, very well might be an important part of why those voters have swung back to the extent they have either.

created the conditions for a Democratic landslide or something that people might hope for or imagine was even likely given the president's low approval rating.

Now, there are limits to what this lead means.

They're up only two points.