Nate Silver

They're hungover, they get divorced. They're human beings, and there's luck. But no, the ideas have like a range of outcomes. And so you're dealing with the uncertainty in the outlook. But yeah, people use it for fantasy baseball. Major league teams used it. You did this in 2000. Was there already fantasy baseball at that time? Yeah. I mean, fantasy baseball dates back to the 80s.

They're hungover, they get divorced. They're human beings, and there's luck. But no, the ideas have like a range of outcomes. And so you're dealing with the uncertainty in the outlook. But yeah, people use it for fantasy baseball. Major league teams used it. You did this in 2000. Was there already fantasy baseball at that time? Yeah. I mean, fantasy baseball dates back to the 80s.

They're hungover, they get divorced. They're human beings, and there's luck. But no, the ideas have like a range of outcomes. And so you're dealing with the uncertainty in the outlook. But yeah, people use it for fantasy baseball. Major league teams used it. You did this in 2000. Was there already fantasy baseball at that time? Yeah. I mean, fantasy baseball dates back to the 80s.

It's kind of in the Moneyball tradition.

It's kind of in the Moneyball tradition.

It's kind of in the Moneyball tradition.

Well, I do want you to tell me, what year did that happen? Moneyball was 2002 or 2003, somewhere in that range.

Well, I do want you to tell me, what year did that happen? Moneyball was 2002 or 2003, somewhere in that range.

Well, I do want you to tell me, what year did that happen? Moneyball was 2002 or 2003, somewhere in that range.

About the same time. So coincidentally, the company was called Baseball Perspectives, and this kind of blows up, in part because of Moneyball and the Red Sox, who are being very stat-friendly, win the World Series in 2004. Yeah, it becomes a whole thing.

About the same time. So coincidentally, the company was called Baseball Perspectives, and this kind of blows up, in part because of Moneyball and the Red Sox, who are being very stat-friendly, win the World Series in 2004. Yeah, it becomes a whole thing.

About the same time. So coincidentally, the company was called Baseball Perspectives, and this kind of blows up, in part because of Moneyball and the Red Sox, who are being very stat-friendly, win the World Series in 2004. Yeah, it becomes a whole thing.

People have this bad habit of pretending that, oh, the model just flaws out of a coconut tree. It'll quote former presidential candidate Kamala Harris. And no, you have to make a lot of decisions. In sports, at least, the data is high quality. We record everything that happens on a major league playing field. But you're making decisions at every turn.

People have this bad habit of pretending that, oh, the model just flaws out of a coconut tree. It'll quote former presidential candidate Kamala Harris. And no, you have to make a lot of decisions. In sports, at least, the data is high quality. We record everything that happens on a major league playing field. But you're making decisions at every turn.

People have this bad habit of pretending that, oh, the model just flaws out of a coconut tree. It'll quote former presidential candidate Kamala Harris. And no, you have to make a lot of decisions. In sports, at least, the data is high quality. We record everything that happens on a major league playing field. But you're making decisions at every turn.

A lot of it is about where you add more complexity and where you're pruning because models break. So you want like a complex simplicity.

A lot of it is about where you add more complexity and where you're pruning because models break. So you want like a complex simplicity.

A lot of it is about where you add more complexity and where you're pruning because models break. So you want like a complex simplicity.

Algorithm is the term that would technically be used for our political forecast. Literally, you input the polls and press the go button and it takes five minutes and runs 50,000 simulations and spits out a bunch of data. But that makes it seem like it has a mind of its own. It's hard because on the one hand, you don't want to dictate what the data says, right?

Algorithm is the term that would technically be used for our political forecast. Literally, you input the polls and press the go button and it takes five minutes and runs 50,000 simulations and spits out a bunch of data. But that makes it seem like it has a mind of its own. It's hard because on the one hand, you don't want to dictate what the data says, right?