Nate Silver

But you never know who you're pissing off, Monica. It's true.

Start getting more into covering politics. Also, I'm living in Chicago at the time, and Obama's a big thing. And he was this hipster fucking law professor. I'm like, oh, he's running for Congress. God, who's this guy, right? Uh-huh. And then he's kind of a cool guy.

Start getting more into covering politics. Also, I'm living in Chicago at the time, and Obama's a big thing. And he was this hipster fucking law professor. I'm like, oh, he's running for Congress. God, who's this guy, right? Uh-huh. And then he's kind of a cool guy.

Start getting more into covering politics. Also, I'm living in Chicago at the time, and Obama's a big thing. And he was this hipster fucking law professor. I'm like, oh, he's running for Congress. God, who's this guy, right? Uh-huh. And then he's kind of a cool guy.

Yeah, he looks and sounds unlike any presidential candidate before. And there's a lot of enthusiasm for him. So 2008 becomes this inflection point where I guess people thought there's so much more political participation now. I'm not trying to get too involved in the politics. But then we obviously kind of spin into all types of crazy directions after that.

Yeah, he looks and sounds unlike any presidential candidate before. And there's a lot of enthusiasm for him. So 2008 becomes this inflection point where I guess people thought there's so much more political participation now. I'm not trying to get too involved in the politics. But then we obviously kind of spin into all types of crazy directions after that.

Yeah, he looks and sounds unlike any presidential candidate before. And there's a lot of enthusiasm for him. So 2008 becomes this inflection point where I guess people thought there's so much more political participation now. I'm not trying to get too involved in the politics. But then we obviously kind of spin into all types of crazy directions after that.

I mean, life, there's a lot of luck, right? Like I felt I was lucky to be at this place where baseball stats really took off and then lucky to be at a point where people want Moneyball for X.

I mean, life, there's a lot of luck, right? Like I felt I was lucky to be at this place where baseball stats really took off and then lucky to be at a point where people want Moneyball for X.

I mean, life, there's a lot of luck, right? Like I felt I was lucky to be at this place where baseball stats really took off and then lucky to be at a point where people want Moneyball for X.

So I have that skill set in the right place at the right time. And then 2008 is this big inflection point where politics becomes much more crazy and interesting. All of a sudden, politics is like not this crusty thing anymore. I'm not trying to be super partisan, but it felt like, OK, now you actually have an interesting politician who I actually want to hang out with.

So I have that skill set in the right place at the right time. And then 2008 is this big inflection point where politics becomes much more crazy and interesting. All of a sudden, politics is like not this crusty thing anymore. I'm not trying to be super partisan, but it felt like, OK, now you actually have an interesting politician who I actually want to hang out with.

So I have that skill set in the right place at the right time. And then 2008 is this big inflection point where politics becomes much more crazy and interesting. All of a sudden, politics is like not this crusty thing anymore. I'm not trying to be super partisan, but it felt like, OK, now you actually have an interesting politician who I actually want to hang out with.

I don't know if I'm good or terrible at naming things.

I don't know if I'm good or terrible at naming things.

I don't know if I'm good or terrible at naming things.

Yeah, but there's deep irony here, which is the whole point of the model was to be probability driven. We're not calling Ohio for Obama. We're saying it was a 52% chance because it's just barely ahead in the polls. You had to bet you'd go 52 instead of 48.

Yeah, but there's deep irony here, which is the whole point of the model was to be probability driven. We're not calling Ohio for Obama. We're saying it was a 52% chance because it's just barely ahead in the polls. You had to bet you'd go 52 instead of 48.

Yeah, but there's deep irony here, which is the whole point of the model was to be probability driven. We're not calling Ohio for Obama. We're saying it was a 52% chance because it's just barely ahead in the polls. You had to bet you'd go 52 instead of 48.

Yeah, and 50 in 2012, because it's just kind of dumb luck, basically, right?