Nathan Lambert

You know, people are pushing viewpoints onto the internet en masse and language models crash the cost of like very intelligent sounding language.

You know, people are pushing viewpoints onto the internet en masse and language models crash the cost of like very intelligent sounding language.

You know, people are pushing viewpoints onto the internet en masse and language models crash the cost of like very intelligent sounding language.

I think to some extent we have capabilities that hit a certain point where any one person could say, oh, okay, if I can leverage those capabilities for X amount of time, this is AGI, right? Call it 27, 28.

I think to some extent we have capabilities that hit a certain point where any one person could say, oh, okay, if I can leverage those capabilities for X amount of time, this is AGI, right? Call it 27, 28.

I think to some extent we have capabilities that hit a certain point where any one person could say, oh, okay, if I can leverage those capabilities for X amount of time, this is AGI, right? Call it 27, 28.

But then the cost of actually operating that capability is so, so extreme that no one can actually deploy it at scale and mass to actually completely revolutionize the economy on a snap of a finger. So I don't think it will be like a snap of the fingerprint.

But then the cost of actually operating that capability is so, so extreme that no one can actually deploy it at scale and mass to actually completely revolutionize the economy on a snap of a finger. So I don't think it will be like a snap of the fingerprint.

But then the cost of actually operating that capability is so, so extreme that no one can actually deploy it at scale and mass to actually completely revolutionize the economy on a snap of a finger. So I don't think it will be like a snap of the fingerprint.

physical constraint rather it'll be a you know oh the capabilities are here but i can't deploy it everywhere right and so one one simple example going back sort of to 2023 was when uh you know being with gpt4 came out and everyone was freaking out about search right Perplexity came out.

physical constraint rather it'll be a you know oh the capabilities are here but i can't deploy it everywhere right and so one one simple example going back sort of to 2023 was when uh you know being with gpt4 came out and everyone was freaking out about search right Perplexity came out.

physical constraint rather it'll be a you know oh the capabilities are here but i can't deploy it everywhere right and so one one simple example going back sort of to 2023 was when uh you know being with gpt4 came out and everyone was freaking out about search right Perplexity came out.

If you did the cost on like, hey, implementing GPT-3 into every Google search, it was like, oh, okay, this is just like physically impossible to implement, right? And as we step forward to like going back to the test time compute thing, right? A query for, you know, you ask ChatGPT a question, it costs cents, right? For their most capable model of chat, right? To get a query back.

If you did the cost on like, hey, implementing GPT-3 into every Google search, it was like, oh, okay, this is just like physically impossible to implement, right? And as we step forward to like going back to the test time compute thing, right? A query for, you know, you ask ChatGPT a question, it costs cents, right? For their most capable model of chat, right? To get a query back.

If you did the cost on like, hey, implementing GPT-3 into every Google search, it was like, oh, okay, this is just like physically impossible to implement, right? And as we step forward to like going back to the test time compute thing, right? A query for, you know, you ask ChatGPT a question, it costs cents, right? For their most capable model of chat, right? To get a query back.

To solve an Arc AGI problem, though... cost five to 20 bucks, right? And this is- It's only going up from there. This is a thousand, 10,000 X factor difference in cost to respond to a query versus do a task. And the task of Arc AGI, it's not like it's like, it's simple to some extent, but it's also like, What are the tasks that we want? Okay, AGI, quote unquote, what we have today can do Arc AGI.

To solve an Arc AGI problem, though... cost five to 20 bucks, right? And this is- It's only going up from there. This is a thousand, 10,000 X factor difference in cost to respond to a query versus do a task. And the task of Arc AGI, it's not like it's like, it's simple to some extent, but it's also like, What are the tasks that we want? Okay, AGI, quote unquote, what we have today can do Arc AGI.

To solve an Arc AGI problem, though... cost five to 20 bucks, right? And this is- It's only going up from there. This is a thousand, 10,000 X factor difference in cost to respond to a query versus do a task. And the task of Arc AGI, it's not like it's like, it's simple to some extent, but it's also like, What are the tasks that we want? Okay, AGI, quote unquote, what we have today can do Arc AGI.

Three years from now, it can do much more complicated problems, but the cost is going to be measured in thousands and thousands and hundreds of thousands of dollars of GPU time, and there just won't be enough power, GPUs, infrastructure to operate this and therefore shift everything in the world on the snap of the finger. But at that moment, who gets to control and point the AGI at a task?

Three years from now, it can do much more complicated problems, but the cost is going to be measured in thousands and thousands and hundreds of thousands of dollars of GPU time, and there just won't be enough power, GPUs, infrastructure to operate this and therefore shift everything in the world on the snap of the finger. But at that moment, who gets to control and point the AGI at a task?