Nathan Lambert

Three years from now, it can do much more complicated problems, but the cost is going to be measured in thousands and thousands and hundreds of thousands of dollars of GPU time, and there just won't be enough power, GPUs, infrastructure to operate this and therefore shift everything in the world on the snap of the finger. But at that moment, who gets to control and point the AGI at a task?

And so this was in Dario's post that he's like, hey, China can effectively and more quickly than us point their AGI at military tasks, right? And they have been in many ways faster at adopting certain new technologies into their military, right? Especially with regards to drones, right? The U.S. maybe has a longstanding, you know, large air sort of, you know, fighter jet type of thing, bombers.

And so this was in Dario's post that he's like, hey, China can effectively and more quickly than us point their AGI at military tasks, right? And they have been in many ways faster at adopting certain new technologies into their military, right? Especially with regards to drones, right? The U.S. maybe has a longstanding, you know, large air sort of, you know, fighter jet type of thing, bombers.

And so this was in Dario's post that he's like, hey, China can effectively and more quickly than us point their AGI at military tasks, right? And they have been in many ways faster at adopting certain new technologies into their military, right? Especially with regards to drones, right? The U.S. maybe has a longstanding, you know, large air sort of, you know, fighter jet type of thing, bombers.

But when it comes to asymmetric arms such as drones, they've completely leapfrogged the U.S. and the West. And the fear that Dario is sort of pointing out there, I think, is that Yeah, great. We'll have AGI in the commercial sector. The US military won't be able to implement it super fast.

But when it comes to asymmetric arms such as drones, they've completely leapfrogged the U.S. and the West. And the fear that Dario is sort of pointing out there, I think, is that Yeah, great. We'll have AGI in the commercial sector. The US military won't be able to implement it super fast.

But when it comes to asymmetric arms such as drones, they've completely leapfrogged the U.S. and the West. And the fear that Dario is sort of pointing out there, I think, is that Yeah, great. We'll have AGI in the commercial sector. The US military won't be able to implement it super fast.

Chinese military could, and they could direct all their resources to implementing it in the military and therefore solving military logistics or solving some other aspect of disinformation for targeted certain set of people so they can flip a country's politics or something like that that is actually catastrophic.

Chinese military could, and they could direct all their resources to implementing it in the military and therefore solving military logistics or solving some other aspect of disinformation for targeted certain set of people so they can flip a country's politics or something like that that is actually catastrophic.

Chinese military could, and they could direct all their resources to implementing it in the military and therefore solving military logistics or solving some other aspect of disinformation for targeted certain set of people so they can flip a country's politics or something like that that is actually catastrophic.

versus, you know, the US just wants to, you know, because it'll be more capitalistically allocated just towards whatever is the highest return on income, which might be like building, you know, factories better or whatever.

versus, you know, the US just wants to, you know, because it'll be more capitalistically allocated just towards whatever is the highest return on income, which might be like building, you know, factories better or whatever.

versus, you know, the US just wants to, you know, because it'll be more capitalistically allocated just towards whatever is the highest return on income, which might be like building, you know, factories better or whatever.

And I think going back to my viewpoint is if you believe we're in this sort of stage of economic growth and change that we've been in for the last 20 years, the export controls are absolutely guaranteeing that China will win long term, right? If you do not believe AI is going to make significant changes to society in the next 10 years or five years.

And I think going back to my viewpoint is if you believe we're in this sort of stage of economic growth and change that we've been in for the last 20 years, the export controls are absolutely guaranteeing that China will win long term, right? If you do not believe AI is going to make significant changes to society in the next 10 years or five years.

And I think going back to my viewpoint is if you believe we're in this sort of stage of economic growth and change that we've been in for the last 20 years, the export controls are absolutely guaranteeing that China will win long term, right? If you do not believe AI is going to make significant changes to society in the next 10 years or five years.

Five-year timelines are sort of what the more executives and such of AI companies and even big tech companies believe. But even 10-year timelines, it's reasonable. But once you get to, hey, these timelines are below that time period, then the only way to create a sizable advantage or disadvantage for America versus China is if you constrain compute. Because

Five-year timelines are sort of what the more executives and such of AI companies and even big tech companies believe. But even 10-year timelines, it's reasonable. But once you get to, hey, these timelines are below that time period, then the only way to create a sizable advantage or disadvantage for America versus China is if you constrain compute. Because

Five-year timelines are sort of what the more executives and such of AI companies and even big tech companies believe. But even 10-year timelines, it's reasonable. But once you get to, hey, these timelines are below that time period, then the only way to create a sizable advantage or disadvantage for America versus China is if you constrain compute. Because

Talent is not really something that's constraining, right? China arguably has more talent, right? More STEM graduates, more programmers. The US can draw upon the world's people, which it does. There's tons of foreigners in the AI industry.