Neil Dutta

Is it going to be like a concurrent slowdown where it's like stocks get killed, spending pulls back and it's just going to happen when it's going to happen?

There will be very little warning.

I feel like people have been looking for warning signs just for the last 15 years.

Some people will point to, like, I think there was a Barron's article that came out over one weekend and the next week the stock market killed and then it just started to unravel.

Like, was it the article that caused this?

I mean, it was obviously going to burst either way.

Are you guys worried about credit card delinquency?

That's been a topic that's come up recently.

But can that be good that it's not as strong?

Because it's not causing wage pressure?

Josh and I talk a lot on the show about the wealth effect and what drives people to spend more money.

And I've mostly rejected the idea that people spend money based on how much they think their house is worth.

Because you don't see it on the screen.

Yeah, no, it feels good.

Sure, I suppose.

But your investment account,

it leads to overconfidence.

I mean, it just does.

You can take money out of your investment account, pay for a home renovation or a toy or whatever, and in 10 days, the bucket is full again because the semiconductors just keep giving you free monopoly money.

So that, like, I think there's no doubt about it that is driving a huge amount of the spending today.