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The Compound and Friends

Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

05 Jun 2026

Transcription

Transcript generated automatically by AI and may contain errors.

Chapter 1: What signals indicate the current state of the economy?

0.031 - 2.715 Neil Dutta

How the hell did you get on that flight? Like, what was the deal?

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4.137 - 26.13 Michael Batnick

So, I called my broker and I said... Is your broker's name Jason? No, no. His name is John. I'm not going to tell the firm. Out of respect. But anyway, I go to him. I'm like, I want tickets to game three. So, make that happen.

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Chapter 2: How is the AI investment boom affecting the market?

26.37 - 55.695 Michael Batnick

I know you guys can do it, so... Hook me up. And he goes, there's no way we can do that. And he's like, give me a minute. So he comes back with this opportunity, which is like, they call it the Nick's flyaway experience, basically. So my wife and I were able to go. They put us in a chartered plane, like a commercial, like Delta plane. They flew us to San Antonio. They fed us.

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55.895 - 57.016 Neil Dutta

It was all Knicks fans?

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Chapter 3: What are the risks associated with the current labor market?

57.497 - 74.139 Michael Batnick

All Knicks fans. Unbelievable. Meet and greet. I met Clyde, John Starks. King Henrik was there. Amazing. On your flight? Yeah. And, you know, they all spoke. Then we went to the game.

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Chapter 4: How is inflation impacting consumer spending?

74.339 - 75.921 Neil Dutta

And the Knicks put you on their Instagram.

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76.34 - 80.286 Michael Batnick

That was a, yeah, that was like a main moment for me.

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80.366 - 85.653 Neil Dutta

And your wife, look at this handsome devil. Look at this cute couple. What a freaking photo.

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85.794 - 93.805 Michael Batnick

Yeah, that was great. No, I mean, yeah. Did you show your kids yet? Oh, yeah, they saw it. I mean, they were, we were all, I was, this is like better than going on Bloomberg or CNBC.

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Chapter 5: What is the Federal Reserve's role in the current economic climate?

93.885 - 104.301 Michael Batnick

Oh, yeah. Not as fun as going on this podcast, though. That's right. But yeah, no. And then, you know, we watched the hope and joy and dreams just evaporate out of that building.

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104.442 - 104.902 Neil Dutta

How'd that feel?

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105.363 - 113.596 Michael Batnick

Wonderful. Like it was just, you know, the best is when they know they've lost and then they all just start leaving early. That is the best feeling.

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113.616 - 115.239 Neil Dutta

I had that feeling in Philly for game three.

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Chapter 6: How does market breadth influence economic recovery?

115.88 - 123.131 Neil Dutta

And I don't take Jalen for granted, but watching him every day. He's special, obviously.

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124.163 - 142.18 Neil Dutta

Seeing the frustration through the eyes of the opposing fans, this one guy threw his hat and said, he doesn't miss. And it just like melted my heart to see. No, it's great. To see that. All right, so here's my story. I have season tickets. I share it with a friend of mine.

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Chapter 7: What unusual patterns are observed in this economic cycle?

143.681 - 169.284 Neil Dutta

And 109, row 20. That's where I sit. He sent me a picture of And I said, with a ticket sale, I said, what is this? He goes, that's a $3,000 profit for game four, like we spoke about. I'm like, dude, I don't remember speaking about this. I would not have been cool with selling game four to the finals. At least I don't think I said that. Um, all right.

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169.304 - 178.259 Neil Dutta

So the situation that we're in now, the tickets, the get in tickets for the New York city based games are higher than Superbowl prices.

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Chapter 8: How should investors navigate the current economic landscape?

179.181 - 204.011 Neil Dutta

The last time I checked for game four, it's like $7,000. All right. So here's, here's my tickets. Round one was three 80. Then it went to like five 50, seven 50, 1350 for the finals for, for each ticket. So 1350, we sold them for $4,500. You can't get into the building for less than $7,000. The Super Bowl get-in price was like 35. So it's double. Now, prices will probably come down a little bit.

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204.411 - 226.277 Neil Dutta

But the cheapest ticket in my section was listed, I just checked, for $17,000. Now, I don't know that anybody's paying $17,000, but that's literally, can I get $15,000 for the tickets? Perhaps. So where we are now is we're working with my ticket broker to basically have games three and four and break even. So basically, whatever our tickets would have cost, $13.50 a piece.

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226.443 - 246.337 Neil Dutta

to have like worse seats. So I'm still going to games three and four, but in worse seats than my original seats. So we did like all of this. Now it's not my friend's fault. Like we couldn't have possibly known, but here's the thing that really hurts. Last night I was having drinks with Matt Middleton and Chris Cherry from Future Proof. They went to the watch party with me.

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247.038 - 275.333 Neil Dutta

So the watch party was a phenomenal experience. Unbelievable. 18,000 people in the garden. It was like basically like a home game, but it was so freaking loud. You know why? There was like no corporate seats. It was only diehard fans. It was so loud. So they released the tickets and in two minutes they're gone. Like I was number 330,000 in line. So $10 tickets.

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275.353 - 299.787 Neil Dutta

I bought it on Ticketmaster or TickPick for like 60 bucks, whatever. Well worth it to get in there. It was such a great experience. So we're at dinner having drinks and Matt was like, oh, I didn't know you had season tickets. I said, yeah, where do you sit? 109. He goes, what row? Like row 20. He goes, dude, my brother-in-law bought your tickets. And I'm like, you mother f***er, give it back.

299.807 - 306.917 Neil Dutta

I want it back. I'm canceling the transaction. How crazy is that? Out of all the- What a small world. So Matt Middleton bought my tickets.

307.999 - 308.379 Michael Batnick

Very cool.

308.4 - 325.259 Neil Dutta

For well below what I could have sold them for. Yeah. Well, at least you're still going. At least I'm still going. So what do you guys, do you guys think there's any like- economic justification? Do you think this is like, this is like the whole story? It's like, yeah, the stock market, people are rich and they're buying tickets at any price.

326.521 - 343.274 Skanda Amarnath

I think that's basically the story, right? We've got, we've got World Cup tickets that are obviously selling for, I mean, not as much to me if people want, but like, we just have like so much, uh, Discretionary spending is actually a pretty solid, maybe it's for the upper income part of the distribution, but it's still like a go-go time in terms of consumer spending.

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