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Neil Dutta

πŸ‘€ Speaker
467 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

So Neil, you said, we ran a one-year daily return correlation between every S&P 500 name and the semiconductor ETF, SMH.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

15 non-tech S&P 500 companies, collectively worth $2 trillion in market cap, now move with semis at correlations of 0.5 or higher.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

12 of these 15 are industrials, names like Vertiv, Eden, Caterpillar, Cummins, Hubel, Hubel, Hubel, Hubel?

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

Comfort Systems, I don't know a lot of these companies.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

Whatever, you go on.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

You say these are not tech stocks.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

They trade like semis because their order books have become AI CapEx order books.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

Caterpillar sells backup generator sets

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

and engines into hyperscaler data centers, Vertiv sells cooling and power management, Enon sells electrical components, and GE Vernova sells gas turbines for data center power.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

This is kind of interesting.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

The gig sector classification has not caught up with the economic exposure.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

But inside the stock market, I was talking to ChartKid and Sean today.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

So healthcare is breaking out.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

It's been stuck in the mud for a while.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

Industrials look awesome.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

That's 20% of the S&P.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

So for as much as people talk about, oh, it's just the max seven, Daniel, throw a chart 12 on.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

This surprised me.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

And I look at the market pretty damn closely, and I don't think I knew this.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

Probably because they diverged like very recently.