Neil Dutta

What about, like, something that is maybe, like, a better timing signal?

Construction permits.

Like, Warren Pius has showed a lot of that data on our show, that when that starts to roll, it has typically, like, a recession wasn't that far behind.

Uh, enough, enough, uh, clearing of the throat, setting up the table, scanned in preparation for this.

Um, I was looking, uh, I think I Googled scan.

I think I Googled your name, LinkedIn.

Um,

which is a weird thing to Google, but I don't know how else I got to this.

There's only one.

I don't know how else I got to this result.

There she is.

So the first result, somebody tweeted, expenditures on AI is about to surpass the peak spending on housing at its 2005 peak spend.

And then they quote you, at close to 7% of the economy at the end of 2025, it's plausible the AI boom would be on par with the share of the US economy.

housing investment represented at its 2005 peak.

So I clicked on the link and it said, first heard on the compound.

So I'm like, holy shit.

So we were talking about this piece that you wrote back in January, 2025.

And you wrote at the time, I think you were on with Joe and Tracy.

You either wrote or said, we are now at the stage where the tech cycle and the business cycle are poised to blur.

From recession dynamics to the Federal Reserve's debate about potential growth and the neutral rate of interest known as our star, AI will leave its mark on the next few years of macro discussion.