Neil Thomas

I think as long as the United States is so unpredictable, is starting conflicts, then of course every other country, including Western countries, US allies and partners, are going to

hedge against that uncertainty.

They're going to want to diversify their options.

They're going to want to make sure they're talking with China, with other countries, with India, trying to get options on the world stage if the US isn't as immediately reliable as it once was.

But I think the other thing to bear in mind is that no one in Europe or none of these allies and partners, to my mind, want to go all in on China, right?

There's still a strong demand, including from Australia, for American leadership, at least as a balance against China and perhaps, ideally, also as a force of stability and

safety in the Indo-Pacific.

So I don't think we're going to see anyone signing military alliances with Beijing anytime soon.

In the longer term, yes.

I think one of the big potential impacts of this conflict in the Strait of Hormuz is greater investment in renewables by almost every other country in the world.

And China is way ahead in terms of the technology for sustainable

solar, electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, all these essential green technologies for the future.

It's a huge part of not just their climate policy, but also broader economic policy in China as well.

And so in the short term, I think China's main concern is still this pressure on global energy prices and

Ideally, having this conflict resolved, even if they're not going to do a whole lot to try and get that done.

But looking ahead into the next few months and especially the next few years and decades, I think it certainly could redound significantly to China's advantage.

I don't think it changes anything about China's ambitions.

China wants to eventually bring Taiwan under its control through a combination of economic incentives, diplomatic exchanges and military coercion.

It doesn't want to fight a war if it doesn't have to.

But what China really is getting