Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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China might buy lots of Iran's oil, but it's trying to keep the war at arm's length. So what role is Beijing playing? How is its economy affected? And what is it learning about the United States military? Today, an expert in China's politics, Neil Thomas, from the Asia Society Policy Institute, on Xi Jinping's strategic moves. I'm Sam Hawley on Gadigal land in Sydney. This is ABC News Daily.
Neil, Donald Trump is scheduled to meet the Chinese president next month and, well, he reckons Xi Jinping is going to give him a huge hug.
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That's what he said on his social media platform, Truth Social. What do you reckon?
I think he's right. We'll see about whether he gets a literal hug. But I think for both Xi and Trump, the main focus of this meeting is basically good vibes and ensuring that the current stability exists. in US-China relations continues.
Yeah, okay. So in Donald Trump's world, the Chinese leader would be really pleased with how things are going in the Iran war?
He is not pleased at all. But I think we've seen from the messaging coming out of Beijing for the last few weeks that despite China's quite vehement disagreement with US moves to attack Iran,
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Chapter 2: What role is China playing in the Iran conflict?
Well, if China does that, China's going to have big problems, okay? Secretary Hexeth, there's reporting that says U.S. intelligence indicates China is preparing weapons shipments to Iran during this ceasefire.
Well, as you know, President Trump has a very strong and direct relationship with President Xi, and they've communicated on that, and China has assured us that that indeed is not going to happen.
Now it denies it, Beijing denies it, but that would be of concern, would it not?
Absolutely. And I think this is the main watch point. China already had a defence trade relationship with Iran, a close economic partner in the region. We know there's been exports and imports of arms going both ways in the previous years and decades.
So what's less clear is whether these reports refer to things that were already happening before the war started, or do they represent an escalation in the sense of being an active effort to help Iran fight this war better? That's where I'm a little bit...
more skeptical because that would prolong the fighting and that would have an impact on China's economy and extend this crunch on global energy markets. So it's possible it's a big watch point, but I'm not sure we have all the evidence we need just yet.
So Neil, why don't we unpack a bit more the reaction to this conflict from Beijing and I guess what it hopes to get out of it. Now, once upon a time, the United States was seen as a steady world superpower. But wow, how things have changed, right? Because it's now Beijing that's offering advice to actually solve this crisis. The president even issued a four-point plan, didn't he?
Just tell me about that.
That's right. So in a call with the Emirati crown prince, Mohammed bin Zayed, she came out with this four-point initiative for Middle East peace. And very briefly, it's peaceful coexistence, it's national sovereignty, international rule of law and balancing development and security, which all sounds wonderful. But what does it actually mean?
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