Niall Ferguson

This is how these wars typically end.

The line is very long.

The Ukrainians don't have as many men.

there's a scenario in which they lose.

And the Russians, after all the slaughter of the past four years, are able to advance further into Ukraine.

That can't be ruled out as a scenario.

It's actually the most likely scenario in a historical framework.

Or there's a compromise piece that stops the war and gives Ukraine some breathing space.

That is the better outcome, obviously.

There is no third possibility.

There's no possibility where Ukraine wins.

Oh, press pause.

The third possibility, we arm them with Tomahawk missiles and the requisite infrastructure and technology to start taking out more of Russia's oil infrastructure, which results in a compromise piece, which isn't as onerous or as one-sided as the current envisioned compromise piece.

I think that greatly understates how strong the Russian war economy remains.

Just let me finish, Scott.

The Ukrainians already did take out most of the Russian oil refining capacity last year, and the Russians just kept shipping crude.

That was 13%.

No, it got up to 40%.

and higher that the Ukrainians actually don't need the Tomahawks that much because their own deep strikes with drones are highly successful and have been incredibly effective except that Russia's big and it has enormous capacity potentially

particularly when it comes to exporting hydrocarbons.