Niall Ferguson

You blow up the refineries, they just then ship the crude.

And the sanctions regime has failed doubly.

It hasn't succeeded in stopping the Russians shipping crude in the so-called ghost fleet.

And it also hasn't stopped the Europeans and others trading with Russia through third countries.

I mean, European countries export a suspiciously large amount of stuff to Kazakhstan and Tatarstan and Kyrgyzstan.

It all goes on to Russia.

So under these circumstances, there isn't really a way in which the military balance can decisively be shifted against Russia.

The Russians have been held, and it's been an incredibly impressive success.

They've been held.

They've barely advanced despite casualties on a monthly level that the U.S.

suffered in a year in Vietnam at the height of the war.

They haven't gained much ground.

In fact, somebody told me the other day he'd calculated that a snail would have got further in the direction of Pogorovsk than the Russians did last year.

So that's pretty good.

But I'm not sure there's much more that can be done with Ukraine's capability.

I think greater economic pressure on Russia is still needed to get Putin to the negotiating table.

But you also need a deal that he can take, that he can accept.

We're talking here, Scott, about a compromise peace.

That's the nature of the beast.

And for that to happen, Putin is going to have to say, I achieved my victory.