Nick Bostrom

The simulation argument shows at least one of them is true, but doesn't tell us which one.

The simulation argument shows at least one of them is true, but doesn't tell us which one.

But what that means is that to the extent we get evidence against the first two possibilities, it would tend to shift probability mass over to the remaining third and conversely.

But what that means is that to the extent we get evidence against the first two possibilities, it would tend to shift probability mass over to the remaining third and conversely.

So if you think we can get evidence for or against, say, the first one, which is that almost all civilizations at our current stage of technological development go extinct before reaching technological maturity, then that would tend to indirectly affect the probability of the simulation hypothesis.

So if you think we can get evidence for or against, say, the first one, which is that almost all civilizations at our current stage of technological development go extinct before reaching technological maturity, then that would tend to indirectly affect the probability of the simulation hypothesis.

So in particular, the closer we get

So in particular, the closer we get

ourselves to being able to wield this technology, the less likely it is that almost all civilizations at our stage fail to go the remaining few steps.

ourselves to being able to wield this technology, the less likely it is that almost all civilizations at our stage fail to go the remaining few steps.

And so that will tend to move probability over to the remaining possibilities.

And so that will tend to move probability over to the remaining possibilities.

Yeah, and in particular, if we get both the ability and we still at that point retain the interest in doing that, that would sort of really leave only the third possibility.

Yeah, and in particular, if we get both the ability and we still at that point retain the interest in doing that, that would sort of really leave only the third possibility.

But short of getting all the way there, if we get sort of half the way there, like it still removes some of the places where this great filter could be.

But short of getting all the way there, if we get sort of half the way there, like it still removes some of the places where this great filter could be.

Like the closer we get, the less chance there is that the remaining few steps will be impossible to take.

Like the closer we get, the less chance there is that the remaining few steps will be impossible to take.

Well, I mean, for the same reasons we might be able to figure these things out.

Well, I mean, for the same reasons we might be able to figure these things out.