Nick Bostrom

Because if there were a million, what are the chances that you would get one of the first 10?

Because if there were a million, what are the chances that you would get one of the first 10?

Very unlikely, right?

Very unlikely, right?

So, you can calculate this.

So, you can calculate this.

So far, it's just standard probability theory, uncontroversial.

So far, it's just standard probability theory, uncontroversial.

But then the idea with the cartelistic doomsday argument is that we have an analogous situation, but where instead of

But then the idea with the cartelistic doomsday argument is that we have an analogous situation, but where instead of

two hypotheses about how many balls urns have.

two hypotheses about how many balls urns have.

We now instead have, say, two different hypotheses about how long the human species will last.

We now instead have, say, two different hypotheses about how long the human species will last.

How many humans will there have been in total when the human species eventually goes extinct?

How many humans will there have been in total when the human species eventually goes extinct?

So consider

So consider

And in reality, there are more, but we can simplify it to two to see the structure of the argument.

And in reality, there are more, but we can simplify it to two to see the structure of the argument.