Nick Bostrom

So one is maybe there will be in total 200 trillion humans.

So one is maybe there will be in total 200 trillion humans.

And then maybe we develop some technology and blow ourselves up.

And then maybe we develop some technology and blow ourselves up.

So that's like one thing you might think could happen.

So that's like one thing you might think could happen.

And let's consider an alternative hypothesis.

And let's consider an alternative hypothesis.

Maybe there will be

Maybe there will be

2,000 trillion humans.

2,000 trillion humans.

We eventually start to develop space colony, we colonize the galaxy, our descendants live for hundreds of millions of years, and there are vastly more people.

We eventually start to develop space colony, we colonize the galaxy, our descendants live for hundreds of millions of years, and there are vastly more people.

So these two then correspond to the two hypotheses about how many balls there are in the urn.

So these two then correspond to the two hypotheses about how many balls there are in the urn.

Then you have some prior probability on these two hypotheses that's based on your ordinary estimates of different risks from nuclear weapons and biological weapons and all of these things.

Then you have some prior probability on these two hypotheses that's based on your ordinary estimates of different risks from nuclear weapons and biological weapons and all of these things.

So, you know, maybe you think it's 50-50 or maybe you think it's like 90% that we will make it through and 10% that we will go extinct or whatever your probability is from these normal considerations.

So, you know, maybe you think it's 50-50 or maybe you think it's like 90% that we will make it through and 10% that we will go extinct or whatever your probability is from these normal considerations.