Nick Goodall

you know, on a more consistent basis, you know, tracking sideways year on year.

So I just wonder if actually maybe we're going to get to, you know, maybe it's going to be 91 to 95,000 sales this year.

So that growth is going to dial back more than we originally thought.

Just when you see that longer term trend of that sales volume growth

slowing down so i'm sort of leaning more towards that at the moment and and as you say the problem is going to be even once we get march sales volumes you're not going to know how much of it's you know just affected by general volatility how much of it's going to be sustained due to that conflict and how much that's going to affect sentiment in the market and deals being done so

yeah who really knows but um that's the hard thing right now is that yeah the the good data takes a while to come through some of the more immediate measures are really useful and we'll talk about some of those shortly from an economic perspective um but because they're not tier one statistics they don't get as much um you know as much weight put into them anyway but uh yeah so i think that's where i'm leaning on the sales transactions the other thing on the buyer classification data i wanted to touch on was the fact that i did do

a little bit more work to understand those movers and their behaviour.

As you said, we've sort of focused on them quite a bit and we've talked about the fact that, yeah, I suppose there's a bit of a circle here when the economic recovery comes in.

They'll come back and they'll help the economic recovery, but they'll also see the property market likely start to spin its wheels a bit faster and see the broader market have some upward pressure on prices.

And that sort of is backed up by some work I just did just looking at, like, if you compare what people pay compared to the RV, CV, GV, whatever you want to call it, only because that's a consistent measure, we could do it compared to our AVM, automated valuation model, Evalia, of course.

But if you do that CV, it's only relevant for a location itself because those CVs are all done at one date.

All I do is then look at how that compares in that area, in this case in Auckland, and see if there's a different sort of premium paid between that sale price and that CV for different buyer groups.

And generally, movers are paying more recently, about 2% more than what a first home buyer is.

And I think it makes sense.

You know, they've got the buying power.

If they are active in that market, they probably get a bit more room to move upwards.

And so they're willing to do that once they're active or once they actually are determined to buy a property.

And so that also just feeds into that thinking, right, that once these movers come back out from not being as active in the last few years, that it will likely see some more upward pressure on prices too.

So, you know, importantly, as you mentioned, you know, this economic recovery and maybe these movers coming back is now going to be stalled or delayed a little bit anyway.

But I think it does point to some evidence that says, yeah, once that part of the market gets moving, which is that middle to upper tier, people moving to their second or their next property from their previous one, they will drive a bit of upward pressure in that market, you know, a bit more competition and,