Nick Goodall
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Appearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
Like you say, you've got to think back to that time, the timing of the decision, the fact the guidance was, look, this is probably the last cut.
I think that was really clear last time around.
It was given that we would expect it would stay lower for longer.
And so, you know, you could have been forgiven for just taking a year, I say, and just go, yeah, in a year's time, they're not going to change that much.
But yeah, definitely that switch to the longer one shows that people were even thinking further ahead than that.
I had to look at the two and three year data as well, because yes, while that massive change to the one year plus was interesting, it was the two and three year that jumped out to me.
You know, the fact that November, 10% of people took two years.
In December, it went to 22%, so a massive jump there.
In November, only 3% of people took the three-year rate, and that jumped to 11%.
And I think, again, if you look back at those rates back then, we were always saying anything under 5%, those two- and three-year rates were still sort of hovering around there about that time.
And given that's a pretty decent rate for a long-term rate, if you were sitting at 5% over a long period of time, I think, again, it makes sense people have done that.
And I think the reason I find it quite interesting to work through this and talk through it
is it just does can provide confidence to those that are out there that are thinking about this right if they're considering these numbers and maybe it's power in numbers you know others are doing it you feel a bit more comfortable and confident that you've got the power of the numbers that are doing the same thing that are seeing the market the same way and and certainly being advised similarly through mortgage advisors and bankers who are helping these people make these decisions and having those conversations themselves who are actually you know
financially qualified to have those conversations and help people to make the decision that works for them given their personal circumstances and what matters for them whether it is the certainty or it's trying to irk out every percent or whatever it might be then they can help them to arrive at a decision that works for them as well so you know i think the the number of people doing that obviously just shows that for many people
They know that it's pretty low.
And even if you don't quite get the bottom bottom, you're going to get a decent rate for a long period of time when we're likely to go into a situation where interest rates do start to lift over the next year or two, certainly.
And that'll flow through to higher interest rates, which might, you know,
I don't know, maybe they're going to get to averaging five and a half to six over the next wee while, which means anything around that five looks pretty decent.
So, yeah, still plenty to wait and see.
Again, these rates I'm sure will change and the decisions from people will change off the back of Wednesday's decision and forecasts.