Nick Goodall

But also we are in a heightened

inflation position too because it is higher than we thought you know all the other things that we're measuring and that's like food prices and and those insurances and all the other things are proving more sticky and longer lasting than we expected and so those are holding up more and maybe that means that reserve bank does need to do more to reduce the inflation of those things because if they're playing paying higher inflation for all those things on top of petrol that is not a good situation and they need to control that domestic inflation as well so

Yeah, it does put you and put them in particular in a pretty sticky spot.

You know, there's the term stagflations come back again, you know, that we're going to see a stagnant economy with inflation continuing to grow, which is the worst position for us to be in from a reserve bank perspective.

So, yeah, tricky spot.

We'll wait and see what they say.

I don't know, is there anything else you want to add on that lasting conversation around the economy, Calvin?

And then I just want to talk about a few things

Exactly.

Yeah.

How much can they quell the market?

Right.

Because I've seen today that those I think you mentioned it earlier as well, that those two year swap rates and other swap rates have gone up.

And so the banks are pricing in those increases to the OCR sooner rather than later.

You know, can they force those back down again?

I don't know from a speech or otherwise.

Or, you know, will they not be able to do much until they republish forecasts in May?

And, you know, if they are a lot more different to the rest of the economists and the market's pricing, then maybe that can have an impact.

But otherwise, yeah, it's hard not to see, you know, those interest rates continuing to grow, forecasts of the official cash rate to rise sooner rather than later.

I'm not saying it's going to happen in April or in May, but certainly it's bringing that forward from maybe not just November, but further forward.