Nick Heiner

And so Surge essentially is hill climbing as a service where we give you an eval to know where the top of the hill is, and then we give you the training data to climb that hill.

And the future I see for us is just providing increasingly sophisticated evals, you know, environments that match even more ambitious real world tasks that we want the models to perform.

So it's like, yeah, doing that deep research to figure out how are we going to make these models amazing textbook writers?

Like, that's a big open question.

And it's one that we're really excited to pursue.

Yeah.

So I will make a prediction that this is, just to be totally clear, my personal take and not the stance of Serge.

Fair enough.

But I think that by 2030...

there is a 50% chance that we will see a company worth $1 billion that has one human employee.

Yeah.

So that's sort of my calibration for...

how long I think it's going to take a lot of knowledge work to be doable by AI agents.

And just to put a little more color on that, if you look at 2025, we had massive progress in coding agents.

I remember using the prototypes that were available over Christmas break 2024, January 2025,

and like they were a research novelty, you know, it was like, it was like, I'm impressed you were able to do this.

This is not close to being something I would want to use, you know, in my day to day.

Um, and, and by the end of the year, uh,

They're so good that people are talking seriously about, do we not need to open our code editors anymore?

Because you just talk to agents all day.