Nicolas Owens

And so the satellite business and the rocket launch business kind of reinforce each other in terms of them just marching down this cost curve.

They're a decade ahead of anybody else and will continue to do so, assuming Starship continues to add.

The bigger loading bay of Starship means that you can put more stuff in it, so your cost to launch a kilogram of stuff goes down.

You're sort of just dividing by a bigger denominator, and that's amazing.

The company gets a narrow moat rating from us because of the AI piece, which is, I would say, indeterminate at best in terms of what its moat would be, and they're investing very aggressively in that business.

You're taking these returns on capital that are evident from the Starlink and Rockets business, and you're saying, I'm going to write a $60 billion check to go get Cursor.

I'm going to do similar size of investments to build data centers in space.

And while I think there could be moats in AI, we don't see evidence of them here.

So, you know, Grok is not one of the leading models.

I do think there's a pathway in this, let's say, moonshot scenario, and even in what we call the minimum viable product scenario where

They can extend some of that cost advantage into data centers in space.

If they can, then that would be, let's say, moaty.

But it's too soon to say, frankly.

Yeah, and I think segueing to the stock price is appropriate because I think the, let's call it, packaging of this company as an AI business is a very rational way to tap into investor appetite for

Right.

I've thought about it in terms of supply and demand.

As you point out, small float, and then you have this additional...

Let's say the market is looking forward to sort of, let's call it structural demand from passive funds, ETFs, and others that track a handful of indexes.

So our moonshot scenario, if you dial the probabilities to 100%, right now it would be $169 a share.

So what we which, you know, and there's there's hundreds of billions of dollars of potential revenue in there.