Nicolas Owens

We are modeling a scenario in which they become a major player in gigawatts of compute in space, et cetera, sort of giving them the benefit of all that money.

doubt we get to 169, the rating would probably be close to the same at these market prices.

And that's just because I think investors are either pricing in further options like a city on Mars,

which we don't ascribe a positive value to.

It's sort of a wash.

If you're investing more in these shares, you're paying an option to see if that's going to work.

And we would say that those types of other projects are more likely than not to not work out, which maybe puts me in the minority there.

In the longer term, starting at the earnings announcement that I anticipate at the end of July or early August, big chunks of shares will come online from the lockups, from insiders.

And so I think that will be—you know, you'll have a NASDAQ rebalance before then, but then you have a decent chunk of stock coming online from insiders.

And I think that will be the next real test of supply and demand.

I wouldn't be able to predict a stock chart, so to speak, but it's tens of billions of dollars.

It's more than the IPO flow will come online there in that first big chunk after Q2 earnings.

And the indexes that are buying...

As the float increases, most of them do this float adjustment to their weighting.

So their demand will kind of slowly scale up, but I don't think it will offset that chunk that's likely to come online.

And the perspective here is, who's selling?

These are investors who've owned this stock as a private company for more than a decade in some cases.

They don't care if it's...

$160, $170, or $200, their cost basis is nothing.

And the price is set by the marginal seller.