Nicole Lapin

The biggest wild card is the Strait of Hormuz.

That is this narrow strip of water between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula.

It is the world's single most critical oil choke point.

About 20% of the world's oil shipped by sea passes through it, roughly 15 million barrels a day.

For context, that is enough gas to fill roughly 12 to 15 million cars.

So the big question here is, will this be another long conflict?

According to analysts at Allianz Global Investors, the death of hominy, while a massive shock,

could actually reduce the risk of a prolonged regional war because it raises the possibility of regime change and potentially a new government that does not carry Iran's 47-year hostility toward the West.

That is an optimistic read.

Chatham House experts warn that Iran, with its back against the wall, has every incentive to externalize the conflict, drawing in its allies, expanding the theater, and making the cost of these strikes impossible for the U.S.

and Israel to absorb quietly.

Oxford Economics research arm put it bluntly.

The conflict is unlikely to last beyond two months, but the near-term volatility will be severe.

And the markets, they are already feeling the volatility.

And the fact that markets are closed on the weekends may have been in part why the strikes happened the way they did.

Venezuelan President Maduro was also captured when the markets were closed on Saturday, January 3rd.

Here's how this conflict will reach your wallet.

The most immediate consequence will be oil prices.

U.S.

crude oil surged more than 7% on Monday.