Nicole Perlroth

And in Xi's grand vision, anything less than total reunification with Taiwan would render China's great rejuvenation incomplete. It's Xi's version of manifest destiny. And it's not just symbolic. It's a strategic imperative. In the party's eyes, Taiwan is more than just a renegade province. It's a U.S. outpost, a threat to China's territorial integrity.

And in Xi's grand vision, anything less than total reunification with Taiwan would render China's great rejuvenation incomplete. It's Xi's version of manifest destiny. And it's not just symbolic. It's a strategic imperative. In the party's eyes, Taiwan is more than just a renegade province. It's a U.S. outpost, a threat to China's territorial integrity.

Geographically, Taiwan sits at the heart of the first island chain, a natural barrier to China's naval dominance in the Pacific.

Geographically, Taiwan sits at the heart of the first island chain, a natural barrier to China's naval dominance in the Pacific.

The islands form the first major geographic barrier between mainland China and the Pacific. The US and our allies see it as a containment line. China sees it as a strategic chokehold. And at the center, just 100 miles off the coast of mainland China, sits Taiwan, a linchpin, geographically, militarily, and symbolically. Because lest we forget China's all-consuming five poisons,

The islands form the first major geographic barrier between mainland China and the Pacific. The US and our allies see it as a containment line. China sees it as a strategic chokehold. And at the center, just 100 miles off the coast of mainland China, sits Taiwan, a linchpin, geographically, militarily, and symbolically. Because lest we forget China's all-consuming five poisons,

The party worries that the longer it puts off Taiwan's so-called reunification, the more Taiwan drifts away and inspires the party's other poisons, the Tibetans, the Uyghurs, the Falun Gong and pro-democracy activists, to pursue their own autonomy. And from that perspective, Taiwan's independence is more than just a geographic impediment. It's an existential threat.

The party worries that the longer it puts off Taiwan's so-called reunification, the more Taiwan drifts away and inspires the party's other poisons, the Tibetans, the Uyghurs, the Falun Gong and pro-democracy activists, to pursue their own autonomy. And from that perspective, Taiwan's independence is more than just a geographic impediment. It's an existential threat.

And then there's the not insignificant issue of the chips.

And then there's the not insignificant issue of the chips.

If data is the new oil, then Taiwan is the Saudi Arabia of semiconductors. Taiwan's semiconductor, or TSMC, produces more than 60% of the world's chips, but it has over 90% market share where it counts. The advanced microchips that are mission critical to winning the battle for global economic supremacy, the AI arms race, and the next war.

If data is the new oil, then Taiwan is the Saudi Arabia of semiconductors. Taiwan's semiconductor, or TSMC, produces more than 60% of the world's chips, but it has over 90% market share where it counts. The advanced microchips that are mission critical to winning the battle for global economic supremacy, the AI arms race, and the next war.

Because next generation weapons like drones and other AI-enabled precision weapons like smart missiles and autonomous combat vehicles, they require those advanced chips. The tighter the U.S. squeezes China's access to advanced chips through blacklists and export controls, the more critical China's control of Taiwan and TSMC becomes. Here's Jim Lewis at our live panel in March.

Because next generation weapons like drones and other AI-enabled precision weapons like smart missiles and autonomous combat vehicles, they require those advanced chips. The tighter the U.S. squeezes China's access to advanced chips through blacklists and export controls, the more critical China's control of Taiwan and TSMC becomes. Here's Jim Lewis at our live panel in March.

But more than anything, experts say Taiwan is personal for Xi Jinping. It's the great unfinished business of the Chinese Communist Party. Xi seeks to resolve what Mao and every other leader since has left unfinished. But Xi is 71, a spring chicken by US political standards. But if he waits until 2049, the PRC centennial, he'll be 96.

But more than anything, experts say Taiwan is personal for Xi Jinping. It's the great unfinished business of the Chinese Communist Party. Xi seeks to resolve what Mao and every other leader since has left unfinished. But Xi is 71, a spring chicken by US political standards. But if he waits until 2049, the PRC centennial, he'll be 96.

The thinking goes, if Xi moves on Taiwan, it won't be decades from now. It will be in the next five to 10 years. What that looks like exactly, we don't know. Here's Dakota Carey, a China consultant at Sentinel-1 and the Atlantic Council.

The thinking goes, if Xi moves on Taiwan, it won't be decades from now. It will be in the next five to 10 years. What that looks like exactly, we don't know. Here's Dakota Carey, a China consultant at Sentinel-1 and the Atlantic Council.

But being ready isn't the same thing as pulling the trigger. It is true that China has significantly upped its military budgets and been flexing its military might in a series of drills as recently as March and April of this year. And what the PLA itself called a stern warning

But being ready isn't the same thing as pulling the trigger. It is true that China has significantly upped its military budgets and been flexing its military might in a series of drills as recently as March and April of this year. And what the PLA itself called a stern warning