Nicole Perlroth

Now, you'd have to be a fly on Xi's wall to know whether these drills are strategic deterrence, saber-rattling, or rehearsals for the real thing. For the first time ever this year, Taiwan's annual military drills identified 2027 as the potential timeline for a Chinese invasion.

Now, you'd have to be a fly on Xi's wall to know whether these drills are strategic deterrence, saber-rattling, or rehearsals for the real thing. For the first time ever this year, Taiwan's annual military drills identified 2027 as the potential timeline for a Chinese invasion.

Most analysts consider an invasion by 2027 unlikely. More site 2029 to 2032 is a pivotal window to resolve Taiwan. But the reason these timeframes become so important is because it means China would have to start prepping the battlefield right now. And that battlefield preparation... Experts say it would look exactly like the cyber attacks we're witnessing on America's critical systems right now.

Most analysts consider an invasion by 2027 unlikely. More site 2029 to 2032 is a pivotal window to resolve Taiwan. But the reason these timeframes become so important is because it means China would have to start prepping the battlefield right now. And that battlefield preparation... Experts say it would look exactly like the cyber attacks we're witnessing on America's critical systems right now.

Here's John Holquist, Mandiant's chief analyst.

Here's John Holquist, Mandiant's chief analyst.

Now, what's clear in hindsight is rarely clear before the fact. But looking back on Russia's twin cyber assaults against the Ukraine grid back in 2015 and 2016 is like reading the tea leaves for Putin's eventual military invasion in 2022. So should we be reading China's incursions into our own infrastructure as tea leaves for a Taiwan invasion?

Now, what's clear in hindsight is rarely clear before the fact. But looking back on Russia's twin cyber assaults against the Ukraine grid back in 2015 and 2016 is like reading the tea leaves for Putin's eventual military invasion in 2022. So should we be reading China's incursions into our own infrastructure as tea leaves for a Taiwan invasion?

Even saying that out loud risks falling down the creeping determinism trap. The economic and military risks to China of a Taiwan invasion would be massive. But China's cyber assaults on our infrastructure, and by the way, we're seeing very similar intrusions in Japan and Taiwan.

Even saying that out loud risks falling down the creeping determinism trap. The economic and military risks to China of a Taiwan invasion would be massive. But China's cyber assaults on our infrastructure, and by the way, we're seeing very similar intrusions in Japan and Taiwan.

suggests at the very least that Xi is keeping his options open and ensuring that if he ever does pull the trigger, the battlefield is already tilted in his favor. Here's Andrew Scott again.

suggests at the very least that Xi is keeping his options open and ensuring that if he ever does pull the trigger, the battlefield is already tilted in his favor. Here's Andrew Scott again.

The implications for the U.S. homeland. This brings me to Matt Turpin. Turpin spent his career tracking the PRC's battlefield preparations. His resume spans decades and administrations. As Xi was stepping into power in 2012, Turpin was in Honolulu, serving as the chief war planner for the U.S. Pacific Command.

The implications for the U.S. homeland. This brings me to Matt Turpin. Turpin spent his career tracking the PRC's battlefield preparations. His resume spans decades and administrations. As Xi was stepping into power in 2012, Turpin was in Honolulu, serving as the chief war planner for the U.S. Pacific Command.

In 2013, he moved to the Pentagon, where he served as China advisor to the chairman and vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff under Obama. When Trump first came to office, Turpin became China director to the National Security Council and Commerce Departments. These days, he's a senior advisor at Palantir and visiting fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution.

In 2013, he moved to the Pentagon, where he served as China advisor to the chairman and vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff under Obama. When Trump first came to office, Turpin became China director to the National Security Council and Commerce Departments. These days, he's a senior advisor at Palantir and visiting fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution.

And in his view, we are already locked into a cold war with China. It's just that only one side has admitted this to ourselves. And I should warn you that when Matt Turpin talks, things get very real, very quickly.

And in his view, we are already locked into a cold war with China. It's just that only one side has admitted this to ourselves. And I should warn you that when Matt Turpin talks, things get very real, very quickly.

Which brings me to the crux of our national security predicament, the one few in our country seem willing to accept, and it's this. If you manage any system that Americans depend on, be it a hospital, a water treatment plant, the grid, a port, a pipeline, air traffic control, or any of the technology that those systems rely on,

Which brings me to the crux of our national security predicament, the one few in our country seem willing to accept, and it's this. If you manage any system that Americans depend on, be it a hospital, a water treatment plant, the grid, a port, a pipeline, air traffic control, or any of the technology that those systems rely on,