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Noam Shazeer

👤 Person
692 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Dwarkesh Podcast
Jeff Dean & Noam Shazeer – 25 years at Google: from PageRank to AGI

And that would be pretty cool.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Jeff Dean & Noam Shazeer – 25 years at Google: from PageRank to AGI

I do think that that fabrication time is, if that's in your inner loop of improvement, you're going to like,

Dwarkesh Podcast
Jeff Dean & Noam Shazeer – 25 years at Google: from PageRank to AGI

How long is it?

Dwarkesh Podcast
Jeff Dean & Noam Shazeer – 25 years at Google: from PageRank to AGI

The leading edge nodes, unfortunately, are taking longer and longer because they have more metal layers than previous older nodes.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Jeff Dean & Noam Shazeer – 25 years at Google: from PageRank to AGI

So that tends to make it take anywhere from three to five months.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Jeff Dean & Noam Shazeer – 25 years at Google: from PageRank to AGI

That can run on, like, existing chips and explore lots of cool ideas.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Jeff Dean & Noam Shazeer – 25 years at Google: from PageRank to AGI

I mean, I like to think of it like this, right?

Dwarkesh Podcast
Jeff Dean & Noam Shazeer – 25 years at Google: from PageRank to AGI

Like right now we have models that can take a pretty complicated problem and can break it down, you know, internally in the model into a bunch of steps, can sort of puzzle together the solutions for those steps and can often give you a solution to the entire problem that you're asking.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Jeff Dean & Noam Shazeer – 25 years at Google: from PageRank to AGI

But it, you know,

Dwarkesh Podcast
Jeff Dean & Noam Shazeer – 25 years at Google: from PageRank to AGI

isn't super reliable and it's good at breaking things down into, you know, 5 to 10 steps, not 100 to 1,000 steps.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Jeff Dean & Noam Shazeer – 25 years at Google: from PageRank to AGI

So if you could go from, yeah, 80% of the time it can give you a perfect answer to something that's 10 steps long,

Dwarkesh Podcast
Jeff Dean & Noam Shazeer – 25 years at Google: from PageRank to AGI

to something that 90% of the time can give you a perfect answer to something that's 100 to 1,000 steps of sub-problem long, that would be an amazing improvement in capability of these models.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Jeff Dean & Noam Shazeer – 25 years at Google: from PageRank to AGI

And we're not there yet, but I think that's what we're aspirationally trying to get to is.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Jeff Dean & Noam Shazeer – 25 years at Google: from PageRank to AGI

Never looked new hardware in the mouth.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Jeff Dean & Noam Shazeer – 25 years at Google: from PageRank to AGI

Yeah, and an aspect of inference time is I think you want the system to be actively exploring a bunch of different potential solutions.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Jeff Dean & Noam Shazeer – 25 years at Google: from PageRank to AGI

Maybe it does some searches on its own and gets some information back and consumes that information and figures out, oh, now I would really like to know more about this thing.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Jeff Dean & Noam Shazeer – 25 years at Google: from PageRank to AGI

So now it kind of iteratively kind of explores how to best solve the high-level problems

Dwarkesh Podcast
Jeff Dean & Noam Shazeer – 25 years at Google: from PageRank to AGI

problem you pose to this system.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Jeff Dean & Noam Shazeer – 25 years at Google: from PageRank to AGI

And I think having a dial where you can make the model give you better answers with more inference time compute seems like we have a bunch of techniques now that seem like they can kind of do that.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Jeff Dean & Noam Shazeer – 25 years at Google: from PageRank to AGI

And the more you crank up the dial, the more it costs you in terms of compute, but the better the answers get.