Nouriel Roubini

to make sure that those who are left behind are not left behind.

It's not the job of monetary policy.

I usually write one every decade.

Crisis Economics was 2010.

Megathread was 2022.

So maybe something on AI and how the world is going to change, but it's going to be by the end of the decade, not anytime soon.

Yes, I mean, everybody's talking about AI, Gen AI, but this is only one of the 15 technologies of the future.

They're all related to AI, but it's AI, semiconductor, biomedical research, quantum fusion, defense tech, fintech, new material science, you name it.

And it's a race between U.S.

and China.

I don't think it's a zero-sum game.

U.S.

is going to do well.

China is going to do well.

But my estimate is that the U.S.

potential growth is estimated today to be only 1.8%.

Could be as high as 4% by the end of the decade.

And I've done a bit of a bottom-up analysis.

And by the way, the data on productivity, after the GFC, average productivity between 2009 and 2019 was only 1%.

Since 2019, in spite of the dip during COVID, has doubled to almost 2%, 1.9%.