Nouriel Roubini

And U.S.-China, they are, of course, in a competitive situation.

strategic competition.

But right now, the trade tension, for all the reasons we know, are somewhat limited.

So every time there is a geopolitical risk, people say stuff could happen.

But so far, those that we have seen in the last few decades, leaving aside the 70s, with the shocks of Yom Kippur and the Islamic revolution, have not a marked effect.

You know, I've been saying since last year that tech trumps tariffs because I think that the upside coming from tech is 200 basis points.

Well, if you add all the impacts of the bad stipulation policies of Trump,

trade, restrictions on migration, fiscal deficit trying to affect the independence of the Fed, rule of law.

The maximum from an empirical point of view could be a negative 50 basis points downside to potential growth.

So you have an upside of 200 from technology, you have a downside of 50, it's a ratio of 4 to 1.

So tech trumps tariff.

So the stuff that is technology is first order, everything else, including geopolitics, is second order.

You know, I believe that there is some fraughtiness, of course, in the AI sector, but if you talk to all these companies, I think that they would all argue that we are maybe at worst five years away or at best three years away from AGI, however you want to define it.

Now, if we are achieving artificial general intelligence, the valuation of the, say, not every of the Mach 7 is going to reach AGI, but maybe three or four will.

So the value of a firm that's going to be having AGI is going to be 5x of its current value.

So that's the race.

So if you think of it this way, yeah, there is some fraughtiness.

There can be a correction.

But with US growth at 2% for the last few decades, the average return on S&P 500 was 12%, including dividends.

Of NASDAQ, it was 16%.