Nouriel Roubini

In 2024, it was 2.4%.

And the number from Q3 suggests it was almost 5%.

And by the way, the Atlanta Fed no-cast for Q4 GDP as today is 5.1%.

Probably it's too high.

But given that and given the job number, you'll have another high productivity growth.

Now, I don't think the productivity growth is 4% or 5%, but there is definitely acceleration.

Jobs is key.

Is it jobless growth?

jobless growth?

Yeah.

Well, it's a jobless growth.

There are three stories.

One is that the GDP numbers are wrong and the GDP numbers are going to be revised towards the weaker labor numbers.

The other one is that, no, the GDP growth is strong and you're going to have some adjustment upward of the revised data.

I think the third explanation is the more correct one.

You can have strong GDP growth and having weak labor growth because we're having a productivity revolution.

If you're looking, for example, at the revenue, real revenue per worker of S&P 500 firms since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, the average has increased for S&P 500 firms by 15% in the last three years.

So it's almost 5% per year.

And if you look at it by sector, of course, a lot of it is closer to 20% in tech and communication services, but it's very large also across the board.

So both at the micro data level, S&P 500 firms and the macro number, we're seeing a productivity revolution already in the numbers.