Owen Raskovich

Then there's the other one where it doesn't recover so quickly.

And I'll put these in the show notes, but I thought it'd make sense just to take you through them and for you to kind of just contextualize how an economist or a property investor or even a politician might think about the difference in like what policies and what economic growth can have on property prices.

And as you know, one of the things in my personal life is I'm actually looking at a house.

So this is really relevant to me too right now.

So if you're listening to this and you're thinking about a house, well, guess what?

We're in the same boat.

So you're probably looking at a lot of the stuff that I'm looking at, but hopefully I can give you a bit of a helping hand here.

So according to CBA, they've done some modeling and obviously models are just models.

They're not real life.

They're representations of real life.

So there's absolutely no guarantee that any model ever is an exact replica of what will take place in society.

And especially when we're talking about the future, the only thing that's certain is uncertainty.

So keep that in the back of your mind as I go through this.

The first thing to note is that most property price forecasts are based loosely on two things.

The first thing would be the overall growth in the economy.

And the way we measure growth in an economy is to talk about something called GDP, or gross domestic product.

You've probably heard us talk on the podcast about recessions, and you've probably seen in the media with some big red flashing lights, recession, recession, recession, you've probably seen something like...

recession in 2020 and what that means is that we have two quarters or two lots of three month periods because most economic data is produced in three month blocks so imagine two blocks or two three month periods which of course equals six months or half a year so half a year of economic data which suggests an economy has gone backwards

Now, when we say an economy has gone backwards, what we're talking about is the GDP, the gross domestic product.

And what that measures is all of the, I guess, value created in an economy in a particular period.