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Paul Kudrowski

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
457 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Plain English BEST OF: This Is How the AI Bubble Could Burst

So you can see how the same thing would happen through a back door that doesn't look like it has anything to do with data centers.

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Plain English BEST OF: This Is How the AI Bubble Could Burst

And it's because the nature of the funding of the providers of this debt

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Plain English BEST OF: This Is How the AI Bubble Could Burst

private credit firms, is increasingly tied to a sector whose obligations don't match the returns from the data centers.

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Plain English BEST OF: This Is How the AI Bubble Could Burst

And that specifically is insurance firms, which are increasingly owned by private equity firms.

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Plain English BEST OF: This Is How the AI Bubble Could Burst

And that's not nearly well understood enough, that the nature of the capital structure in the economy that's driving this has changed.

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Plain English BEST OF: This Is How the AI Bubble Could Burst

And that's created a new source of risk because of this temporal mismatch.

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Plain English BEST OF: This Is How the AI Bubble Could Burst

So I've had this discussion with Michael Semblers.

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Plain English BEST OF: This Is How the AI Bubble Could Burst

So I'll tell you.

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Plain English BEST OF: This Is How the AI Bubble Could Burst

So here's the way here.

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Plain English BEST OF: This Is How the AI Bubble Could Burst

The nut of the discussion we had was about this difference between what we're earning right now and what a data center earns on renting out GPUs versus what its costs are.

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Plain English BEST OF: This Is How the AI Bubble Could Burst

So let's say I can rent for $35 an hour and it's costing me $12 an hour.

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Plain English BEST OF: This Is How the AI Bubble Could Burst

the combination of air conditioning power and the net of my debt on this.

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Plain English BEST OF: This Is How the AI Bubble Could Burst

That's a $23 per hour gap.

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Plain English BEST OF: This Is How the AI Bubble Could Burst

So let's say that gets halved over the next two years.

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Plain English BEST OF: This Is How the AI Bubble Could Burst

That's still a huge premium over the costs, the rental cost of these data centers.

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Plain English BEST OF: This Is How the AI Bubble Could Burst

So as much as you might say...

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Plain English BEST OF: This Is How the AI Bubble Could Burst

The capital flowing into this is going to cause a big hit.

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Plain English BEST OF: This Is How the AI Bubble Could Burst

It's still very competitive as a commercial real estate play, if you will, in terms of the amount of premium I'm earning on top of my costs.

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Plain English BEST OF: This Is How the AI Bubble Could Burst

That's a perfectly sound argument.

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Plain English BEST OF: This Is How the AI Bubble Could Burst

You could make that argument and say that, yeah, we used to earn, I don't know, $25 or $30 an hour of straight margin on top of the cost of these data centers from a rental standpoint.