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Paul Kudrowski

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
457 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Plain English BEST OF: This Is How the AI Bubble Could Burst

And that's going to get cut in half.

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Plain English BEST OF: This Is How the AI Bubble Could Burst

But bro, that's still a lot of money, right?

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Plain English BEST OF: This Is How the AI Bubble Could Burst

So that's the argument you will get from many on the other side of this, that even a sharp decline in the margins on the rentals of these GPU assets still doesn't affect the amount that I'm going to get back.

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Plain English BEST OF: This Is How the AI Bubble Could Burst

Now, the problem with that is, is it doesn't get to the question of, okay, fine, where is that money coming from?

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Plain English BEST OF: This Is How the AI Bubble Could Burst

Where's the money coming from that's the rental?

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Plain English BEST OF: This Is How the AI Bubble Could Burst

The rental price is coming from somewhere.

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Plain English BEST OF: This Is How the AI Bubble Could Burst

Most people I talk to are not, most people probably you know as well, typical consumers, are not paying for ChatGPT, right?

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Plain English BEST OF: This Is How the AI Bubble Could Burst

Some enterprises are and others, and ChatGPT's built a nice little business on it, but they're still going to burn, what was it I saw, like $100 billion over the next two years, I think was the number?

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Plain English BEST OF: This Is How the AI Bubble Could Burst

So the deeper problem is there's a great subsidy going on right here.

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Plain English BEST OF: This Is How the AI Bubble Could Burst

So the data center rental income is coming from people whose economic models currently don't work and they show no sign of it working in the near future.

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Plain English BEST OF: This Is How the AI Bubble Could Burst

So, yeah, they're continuing to earn margin as a data center provider.

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Plain English BEST OF: This Is How the AI Bubble Could Burst

provider because of the monies that they're being spent.

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Plain English BEST OF: This Is How the AI Bubble Could Burst

But that still reflects a massive subsidy to the people who are paying the data centers, even at half off prices.

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Plain English BEST OF: This Is How the AI Bubble Could Burst

And so for me, that's the way I'd be wrong.

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Plain English BEST OF: This Is How the AI Bubble Could Burst

The way I'd be wrong is that margin doesn't continue to decline.

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Plain English BEST OF: This Is How the AI Bubble Could Burst

That even though it declines, it doesn't decline back to the point where it's no longer economically viable, given rising costs of operating a data center and declining costs or declining prices of being able to rent them.

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Plain English BEST OF: This Is How the AI Bubble Could Burst

that those two don't come into line.

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Plain English BEST OF: This Is How the AI Bubble Could Burst

I think they're going to come into line and it's going to become a deadweight loss business.

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Plain English BEST OF: This Is How the AI Bubble Could Burst

The argument from the other side is no, it won't.

Plain English with Derek Thompson
Plain English BEST OF: This Is How the AI Bubble Could Burst

Costs will continue to improve.