Peter Attia

Category beneath that we call fuzzy.

And this means there are some data around the claim, but they are really inconsistent and incomplete.

So overall, you would say the data quality here is not that great, but there's probably a signal.

Beneath that, we have noise.

So here we have something where there are just frankly no real meaningful results.

So noise is something that it's not that I'm saying you shouldn't pay attention to it, but you clearly don't want to be distracted by it.

And it's best to wait and see if noise declares itself by going up to fuzzy or

with the presence of some data as it works its way up the chain or whether data actually emerge that put it in the final category, which is actual nonsense.

So again, nonsense means we actually have data and the data refute the claim being made

So as far as we can tell, this is as close to disproven as you'll be.

So again, those are the five categories.

Just kind of keep that in mind as we apply our judgments to these things.

And keep in mind as well that these are fluid.

Things can move up and down these chains in the presence of new information.

Yeah, look, I think first and foremost, that's an attribute of great scientists.

So if you look at what separates good scientists from great scientists, that would probably be one of the characteristics.

A great scientist is not married to being right.

They're married to knowing what is right, and they're going to go wherever the data take them.

But honestly, the first time I heard that expression to have strong convictions loosely held was actually from a friend of mine who at the time was running a hedge fund.

He's since retired.