Peter Baker

The worst case scenario is that prices go up quite dramatically. And the result of that is a so-called destruction of demand. You know, oh, you need a car because your old car is getting old. Well, you go off and you see that prices are up quite a bit. Mm-hmm. The domestic cars on offer are hard to get because there's more demand for that, and that's driving their prices up.

The worst case scenario is that prices go up quite dramatically. And the result of that is a so-called destruction of demand. You know, oh, you need a car because your old car is getting old. Well, you go off and you see that prices are up quite a bit. Mm-hmm. The domestic cars on offer are hard to get because there's more demand for that, and that's driving their prices up.

And you're hearing horror stories about how hard it is to fix a car. And so you just defer your purchase and kind of muddle through. And meanwhile, you know, the cost of everything from exercise, clothing to groceries is going up. And so you're buying less, and that leads to a good old-fashioned recession. where people lose jobs and the economy slows down and people's living standards decline.

And you're hearing horror stories about how hard it is to fix a car. And so you just defer your purchase and kind of muddle through. And meanwhile, you know, the cost of everything from exercise, clothing to groceries is going up. And so you're buying less, and that leads to a good old-fashioned recession. where people lose jobs and the economy slows down and people's living standards decline.

And by the way, you know, the political implications of that are likely to be quite unpleasant.

And by the way, you know, the political implications of that are likely to be quite unpleasant.

Natalie?

Natalie?

Yeah, I just want to add that think about the last great shock that we experienced globally, the pandemic. And we ended up with shortages of goods. We ended up discovering that our supply chains were not very resilient and a lot of confusion, right? It was hard to get stuff on container ships. In the U.S., our railroad system couldn't handle it. We supposedly ran out of truck drivers.

Yeah, I just want to add that think about the last great shock that we experienced globally, the pandemic. And we ended up with shortages of goods. We ended up discovering that our supply chains were not very resilient and a lot of confusion, right? It was hard to get stuff on container ships. In the U.S., our railroad system couldn't handle it. We supposedly ran out of truck drivers.

Our warehouses got all messed up. And I think you wrote a whole book about this. I wrote a whole book about it. It's called How the World Ran Out of Everything Inside the Global Supply Chain.

Our warehouses got all messed up. And I think you wrote a whole book about this. I wrote a whole book about it. It's called How the World Ran Out of Everything Inside the Global Supply Chain.

This is a self-inflicted shock. This is a similar set of... of unknowns where we are asking virtually every large company on earth to take a look at where they're buying and selling their stuff and think about moving it around, absorbing very quickly a dramatic change to the terms of trade. And we don't know what's going to happen, but we know that the last time we had a big shock

This is a self-inflicted shock. This is a similar set of... of unknowns where we are asking virtually every large company on earth to take a look at where they're buying and selling their stuff and think about moving it around, absorbing very quickly a dramatic change to the terms of trade. And we don't know what's going to happen, but we know that the last time we had a big shock

it was extremely disruptive.

it was extremely disruptive.

It was traumatic.

It was traumatic.

That's the gamble that the president is telling us he is making. The president is telling us that if we go through this period of pain, we will come out the other end much stronger with many more jobs. But so much would have to go right for that to pan out. And we know that immediately what we're looking at is enormous chaos and upheaval.

That's the gamble that the president is telling us he is making. The president is telling us that if we go through this period of pain, we will come out the other end much stronger with many more jobs. But so much would have to go right for that to pan out. And we know that immediately what we're looking at is enormous chaos and upheaval.