Peter McCrory
speaker
628 appearances
3 recordings
3 series
first heard Jan 2026
last heard 19 Jun
Peter McCrory’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 3 in all, peaking in Jun 2026 with 1.
Appearances
And I don't know, that'll be an exciting time for learning about the world.
You know, what that means for my job, I'm sort of less entirely clear.
And, you know, we just put out a report yesterday on cloud code usage.
And one of the things that we're trying to understand is like, what are the returns to expertise and how does that interact with the usage of sort of automated coding agents?
And we find that domain expertise, like if you're an accountant who understands some of the edge cases and reconciliation, that that domain expertise controlling for a whole host of factors about the type of work, the estimated monetary value.
It has an amplifying effect.
So this looks like at present as sort of a skill biased expertise enhancing impact.
But I think this is the key question is at what point and to what extent will this change?
That's from Anton Kornack and McKelvey's paper a few weeks ago.
Yeah, so I think this is exactly the right premise.
That's kind of where we began the conversation, which is we're maybe at the point where we should be able to see some discernible impact on the macroeconomy.
Unfortunately, the arrival of this world historical technology is against the backdrop of sort of unusually elevated macroeconomic volatility post-pandemic.
monetary policy, et cetera.
And so it makes it very hard to disentangle all of the different factors.
What's the counterfactual?
Labor productivity growth is maybe not as strong as you might not otherwise expect, but maybe it's stronger than it is in a counterfactual.
And so one way that we've tried to tackle this question is by looking at how Claude is being used on our platform using our privacy preserving techniques to estimate the time savings associated with each of the activities that people use Claude for.
Compiling information from reports to put together a research brief would take you a few days maybe, now Claude does it in a few minutes.
Evaluating diagnostic images is something that skilled professionals do very rapidly, so there isn't in principle much time savings.
You can add up all of those numbers and using standard macro growth accounting techniques, Halton's theorem for the economists and the audience,
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