Peter McCrory

What AI represents is this possibility of loosening the bottlenecks to the innovation process.

And if you put that into your standard long run economic growth model, it can produce an even larger disruptive force.

So I'll try to ground this a little bit based on some of the research that my team put out in late November.

So we wanted to get a handle on

this question of what AI might mean for overall productivity within the economy.

And so we did this exercise where we asked Claude to evaluate how much time savings did people get when they used Claude for the particular task that they're doing.

So Claude did it.

Well, that's a part of our privacy-preserving approach is we use Claude to evaluate

the conversations so that no human is actually looking at the content.

So, you know, like for compiling information from reports, that's something that large language models can do very fast.

Maybe a time savings on the order of 90%.

Checking diagnostic images is something that skilled professionals can do very quickly.

A radiologist can look at a diagnostic image and

evaluate what's going on.

And indeed, we see limited efficiency gains.

Then we use standard macro techniques to add up all of the efficiency gains that we see on our platform.

And we propose this question, what if it takes 10 years for those efficiency gains to spread throughout the economy?

And the number that you get is an increase in labor productivity growth of around 1.8 percentage points each year over the next decade.

Now, that's a very large number in the context of labor productivity growth for advanced economies, which over the last 20 years have experienced sort of this productivity slowdown.

It would roughly bring us back to something like the late 90s and early 2000s.