Peter McCrory

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628 appearances 3 recordings 3 series first heard Jan 2026 last heard 19 Jun

Peter McCrory’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Odd Lots · Anthropic's Co-Founder and Top Economist on Doing Research at the AI Frontier · 19 Jun 2026 podcast

And you get a number that points in the direction of labor productivity growth increasing by 1.8 percentage points each year over the next decade, if that's how long it takes current usage patterns and current model capabilities to diffuse throughout the economy.

That's a very large number.

It's a rough doubling of recent run rates.

And what I think you might be able to see in the data, and we haven't put anything out on this yet, is I think some of the strength in recent labor productivity growth is actually concentrating in exactly the sectors of the economy that would be consistent with both what we see in our data, as well as also what you see in the business trend and outlook survey.

So the information sector has high rates of adoption.

I can't recall if that's in particular one of the sectors that I have in mind.

It's a while since I looked at that scatterplot.

But you can look at the sub-industries by the Census Bureau's Business Trend and Outlook Survey.

And rates of adoption are in sectors or parts of the economy where controlling for pre-pandemic

trajectory of labor productivity growth in those sectors, even some of the strength in the early years of the recovery, still see some suggestive evidence.

I think there's a lot of uncertainty here.

Trying to get a real-time signal on productivity is maybe the hardest thing to do.

You're subject to macroeconomic GDP revisions.

TFP growth is actually sending the opposite signal.

And if you

control for capacity utilization, TFP growth is arguably even lower.

So I say this as like this is suggestive evidence that maybe we're beginning to see an impact there, but not so much in the labor market.

Yeah.

I think there is another part of what we're trying to do at the Institute, which we lay out in the sort of research agenda for the Anthropic Institute, which is trying to understand the impact of our decisions, which is a typical thing that economists will do at tech companies.

But we have a public benefit mandate.

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