Peter Tuchman
speaker
483 appearances
9 recordings
1 series
first heard Dec 2024
last heard Apr 2025
Peter Tuchman’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
But the other thing that an advisor can do is really help somebody determine their risk tolerance because you can talk about it all. Anybody can talk about risk tolerance all they want. You really find out in a bear market what someone's risk tolerance really is. So these are the times for people to be asking themselves, hey, am I really in the right portfolio for me?
Can I live through this if it went on for months and months and months?
That's right. When you're on the roller coaster and you're in the middle of the bear market, you cannot get off the roller coaster. You have to follow it to the end, get through the bear market, but then ask yourself, am I willing to ride that roller coaster again? The bear market is going to happen again. Like we said, it's just like the horror movie. There's going to be a sequel.
And so if you can't take it after that ride is over, get yourself on a different type of roller coaster, maybe a more moderate one. If you're totally unfazed, maybe you can even take more risk in terms of accept more volatility in your portfolio and move upstream. But the decision should be made after the market has returned to normal.
The market has some relief there. But I think this is going to go on for quite a while because the reality is we're now doubling down on a trade war with China, which is our biggest trade partner. So it's a bigger deal to be in a trade war with China than the bottom 40 countries in the world. So I think that's a real thing for negotiations with the EU, Canada, Mexico.
This is going to go on for a while. And I think there will be more. I don't think it's over. Let's put it that way.
Yeah. In terms of bear markets, this as dramatic as it is, would be on the lower end of drama in terms of bear markets.
Yeah, I mean, we're talking about an existential threat to the global economy, even working, right? If the banking system collapses, it's like the circulatory system of your body. You just can't function without it. And that's what we were talking about then. You could even say with COVID, everyone thought they were... going to die for a period of time there.
I mean, these are really, really big events that were external. This is self-caused. No one thinks the global economy is going to collapse. No one thinks everyone's going to die. We're going to get through this one way or another.
Well, I mean, definitely it was much bigger scale than expected. So I would never tell them like, hey, this was totally forecasted. But I do think that knowing there was going to be some tariff dispute, this should not be a surprise. And he did it in his first presidency too. And the market also went down 20% at that point. It took three weeks for that to happen.
So it was a little less dramatic, but it went on a very long time. It took almost a year for the market to get back to normal.
Well, the big opportunities in a recession are building the ownership part of your portfolio. So all investments fall into one of two categories, owner or lender. So if you own US stocks or international stocks or real estate fund or private equity fund, or you own your own business, or you own a duplex you rent out, those are all ownership investments.
And then the other side lending is loan money to the federal government. That's a treasury. You loan it to The state of California, that's a municipal. You loan it to Microsoft, that's a corporate bond. Those are all loans. You loan money to your friend, that's a bond as well. But in a recession, it's when being an owner, all those ownership assets are on sale in the recession.
So really looking for the quality there that fits your long-term approach and going as far into that as you possibly can, that's the perfect time to be doing it.
Yeah, this is very, very rare, Nicole. So basically, normally when stocks are down, bonds are up. That's what happens about 85% of the time. That's not what happened this time. And part of that was we don't know if Japan and China were starting to sell all their bonds, but something happened.
over the last couple of days where there was a lot of supply of bonds thrown on the market and it drove bond prices down. So you're seeing both bonds and stocks go down at the same time. But even with that, they go down very differently. When bonds go down, they go down usually a few percent while stocks are going down 10 times as much.
So even when they're not behaving exactly the way we want them to, they're still providing a buffer.
I mean, if you think about the Trump administration's kind of perfect storm, you know, not too hot, not too cold, just the perfect gold deluxe moment would be that they negotiate a better tariff deal with every country on Earth. that they get the other things that they want around immigration with Mexico or drugs with other countries or TikTok and the Panama Canal with China.
Then they have low inflation. They have peace breakout with low oil prices, which really helps with low inflation. But that along the way, there's enough weakness that the Federal Reserve has to lower interest rates. So when all of this debt comes due next year, all those treasuries get replaced with lower paying treasuries. So the federal government's paying less in interest.
There was a lot of talk that that's what Trump was trying to do, was talk the economy down, drive the stock market down. push the Federal Reserve to lower rates, then you get the lower rates and then you have the negotiations.
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