Peter Tuchman
speaker
483 appearances
9 recordings
1 series
first heard Dec 2024
last heard Apr 2025
Peter Tuchman’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
I mean, I think there was some truth to that because while the market was going down, he was publicly talking to the Federal Reserve chair saying, hey, you should really lower rates. I mean, this wasn't a secret. It wasn't back channels. He was doing it online. So I think it's very clear that that's the outcome that he wanted.
The bond market did the opposite as foreign countries started to dump their bonds and probably as part of the tariff war to put him in that spot.
That's right.
No one knows. And I always tell people, if somebody tells you that they know, don't take advice from that person. Nobody knows exactly what the Fed is going to do, where the markets are going to go. It's just too many factors, too many variables.
I haven't seen anything like that. I mean, this was incredible. Somebody posted something online. The stock market started to soar a couple of days ago. Then it came out that that person didn't wasn't really correct. Then the market dropped. It just showed. the power of information. If people think anything is reliable, they're looking for that clue, that head start.
And Twitter, really, you see so much information come out in real time, whether it's from Republicans or Democrats or economists. But in this case, it wound up being not true and the market's quickly self-corrected. But Twitter is a place where people are going to try to get more information about what's about to happen.
It is absolutely crazy, you know, that the person who basically had the button to control the global economy and the markets that day in advance on Twitter said time to buy is just you can't write this stuff. I mean, it's just incredible.
Well, these predictions, they really almost have to change day to day. I mean, they changed from last Thursday to this Monday. And I think post the announcement that we're not going to have this tariff war with most of the countries on Earth. I would think those recession odds have come down. I mean, there's always a reasonable chance of a recession in the next two years.
There's always, I think, a 20% chance of that happening, kind of no matter what's going on in the world. I think that the odds are probably still less than 40%, although some people think we're already in a recession. If that's the case, I'll take it. because all things considered, it's a pretty mild one.
If unemployment is going to stay under 5% and you're going to still have strong corporate earnings while we're going through a recession, that's not bad. I think that a lot of people think that the Trump administration wants a mild recession, because to your point earlier, that would lead to the Fed lowering interest rates, which would lead
to the federal government paying less interest on its debt and mortgage prices going down and so on. I think that's a dangerous game. And we saw the Trump administration blink when bond yields moved against them. So I think they're very, very sensitive to where interest rates are.
Yeah, I mean, I think Ray is a historian, right? And if you look at all empires, they eventually collapse. But they don't need to collapse with total implosion. Like we, the United States, took over being the world superpower from the United Kingdom, but the United Kingdom's stock market has soared during that time period. It doesn't necessarily mean that everything implodes and is lit on fire.
And I think Ray... just to be frank, has had this message for a very, very, very, very long time, a very long time. And I think that it's reflected in the way that their funds have been positioned and have done. I don't share that sentiment. I think the United States has some things that are unique relative to previous superpowers.
We've got friendly neighbor to the north and the south, and we've got these huge oceans on both sides of us. There is no more secure country on earth Geographically, we've got the number one river tributary system in the world. We're drowning in natural riches, whether it's timber or oil or natural gas or water.
The United States is one of only seven countries that's totally independent, could function without any other country if it needed to, and
nuclear powerhouse with the strongest military to ever exist in the history of the world and i think you put those things together i mean there's a there there's a lot of room for error in the united states it's very different than just a regular country like say greece or venezuela or zimbabwe where you have a currency crisis and everything falls apart that doesn't mean we're on the right track i agree with ray we're not on the right track at all i mean the national debt's out of control the interest we're paying on it is out of control
This will create a crisis at some point, but I don't extend it to the collapse, the same degree of collapse that Ray Dalio does.
I think this is, if you don't have one and you don't have a plan, you've been nervous, you don't know how to take advantage of the opportunity, you're not placing any tax trades, this is a time to explore.
If you're going to explore, make sure you find somebody who is a fiduciary 100% of the time, doesn't own any of their own investment products, is not licensed to sell a commissionable investment. Get somebody that has to be on your side of the table all the time and that also does planning. so that that portfolio can be part of your specific goals.
Where you see people go off the rails is, Nicole, what you and I talked about earlier. They don't really have a plan. They've just bought investments. And so that can lead to poor decisions. If you have a plan and all the investments are pointed towards the short-term, intermediate-term, and long-term plan, obviously, you're more likely to hit your goals that way.
Showing 61–80 of 483 · page 4 of 25
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