Peter Zeihan

It's only good for Russia if they can continue to export.

With what the Europeans are doing with the shadow fleet, they may be about to lose 4 million barrels if they have exports.

Yeah, so we've gone from nobody wanting to touch it for various reasons to now we have every couple of days another European country taking another tanker.

Sweden was the last one to take a ship over the weekend.

Belgium took one last week.

France the week before.

They're building up the legal and institutional infrastructure to do it by the book from their point of view.

And of course, the United States has gone after the Venezuelan Flato Shadow Fleet and

And the Indians have taken a couple of ships from the Iranian shadow fleet.

So this is the last year for that, unless we have a starkly robust change of policy in the not too distant future.

And having the Persian Gulf removed from the equation might be what pushes them in that direction.

But we're kind of in this perfect storm here where the shadow fleet is looking really wobbly.

The Persian Gulf for the moment is gone.

And one of the things that everyone in the world forgets is under the 2015 omnibus bill during the Obama administration, the U.S.

president got the authority to, with the flick of a pen, shut off...

all oil exports um no review no congressional approval or consultation required so we're in a situation here where the world might lose persian gulf russian and american crude all at the same time and um

there would be a show when that happens.

Who are the winners so far here?

It's too soon to tell.

Israel certainly thinks that they are a winner because they've gotten the United States to basically fight their war for them.