Peter Zeihan

Artificial intelligence is a completely different technological suite from automation.

And even if automation could solve the production side of the equation as the Chinese run out of workers...

Robots don't pay taxes and they can't raise kids and they can't consume product.

And so even if the Chinese could maintain their production levels without people

they'd still be dependent on international trade that they can't guarantee and on the largest of the United States in the long term.

It doesn't change their core problem.

50 years, that is the right timeframe.

I haven't talked to anyone...

who's involved in Silicon Valley at all, who expects us to get general thinking AI before the 2040s.

And based on what's going on with the large language models, that keeps getting moved back.

This is not a technology that's leading us in that direction.

So, yeah, there are some... Considering that you can fit the entire algorithm set and training data for ChatGPT on a thumb drive that's about half the size of this...

No, it's like, it's like, I look at Nvidia's, uh, valuation, like, you know, this, I mean, great for them, but you know, this is, this, this is the very definition of a bubble.

All it takes is a couple of corporate thefts and everything that's special about them goes away.

I mean, everything with demographics is glacial.

It takes decades for it to arrive.

And so everyone's just like, you know, hurry up and wait, hurry up and wait.

And then the day it arrives, it's too late because you are now a bloody smear into the glacier.

In the case of Japan, we actually have a culture that saw this coming.

And they have done a number of things over the last 30 years to make it easier to have children, to stay in the workforce longer.