Peter Zeihan

That's way too extreme.

There's a lot of minefields.

It's not that simple.

But their ability to manage the front has just dissolved in the last month.

There weren't a lot of people who saw the Ukraine war coming.

I was one of them.

I was probably the most optimistic for the Ukrainians' chances.

And even I thought this was all going to be over in a year.

Here we are in year five.

So any forecast that I make on that is going to be very loosey-goosey that I have very low confidence in.

The technology is changing.

The political alliances are changing.

The Starlink thing.

Who could have even imagined that five years ago?

What I will say is that not once...

in Russian history have the Russians ever negotiated an end to a conflict unless they had already won or already lost.

And the idea that this somehow is going to be different is stupid.

From the Russian point of view, they have to reach the Danube, the Carpathians, the Vistula, and the Baltic, and they will not stop until they get there.

And any talk of talks is just that.

It would simply be an opportunity for the Russians to insist that somebody else give them something that they haven't been able to capture militarily, and then as soon as they're ready, they push again.