Peter Zeihan

And anyone who tells you otherwise really doesn't understand the Russians.

You know, the United States has not been in a position where its back has been to the wall since the Civil War.

So, honestly, we've not been tested in a way that a lot of cultures in the world have faced in the last century, century and a half.

It's just not something we've ever had to deal with.

I mean, the last existential external war that we fought was with Mexico.

That wasn't a searing experience for most Americans.

You really have to go back to the War of 1812 for us facing an external force that really could have had us.

So I don't think that's a fair comparison, personally.

The United States military since...

before the world wars has been designed to project power out and if you're going to project power out you will never win on the numbers you have to win on technology and reach and speed and lethality and being able to choose the time and place of the fight and if that is what you're doing you spend a lot more money per person in order to project than you would by just putting a gun in someone's hand and sending them charging the front

And so when we do suffer casualties, it's magnified.

That's absolutely true.

But that's by design almost.

We show up with an aircraft carrier.

Everyone else shows up with a donkey.

It's a different type of fight.

if Persian Gulf crude really does go away, they're going to have to make a really hard decision about Russia and Ukraine.

If you had asked me five years ago whether or not they would have stood up to the Russians in the way they have, I would have laughed at you because they had

taken every opportunity in the previous two decades to give in to the Russians at every opportunity, especially on energy politics.

And it's only with the Ukraine where they realize this really is about their long-term survival.