Peter Zeihan

So we're looking at a collapse of the economic model.

And the security model was based on the economic model.

So we were always going to get to some version of where we are now.

And now the economics have caught up to the politics and it's all breaking.

I have one guess, and I will not put any money on it, but the backdrop, capitalism, communism, European-style socialism, totalitarianism, fascist corporatism, those are the four big models of the last 500 years.

All of them are predicated on a balance between supply and demand and labor and capital.

And each one of those four models values a different aspect of the process.

So European socialism is a little bit more pro-labor than pro-capital.

Capitalism is a little more capital than pro-labor.

And then the balance of supply and demand is basically a demographic question based on how many people you have that are under age 50 who are doing the consumption versus over age 50 who are generating the capital.

That's how we've managed this system for the last 500 years.

And all four of those models are based on the concept that the population gets a little bit bigger every year.

And so they are all growth-based models.

But in this next 10 years, that will no longer be true.

We already have the bulk of the advanced world aging out to the point that they all have shrinking populations.

And most of the rest will flip in the next 10 years.

And even the advanced industrializing countries, your Mexicos, your Indias, your Brazils are very, very rapidly moving into that position.

And they will be there 10 to 20 years from now.

So all four of those economic models, the very basis of them doesn't work with where we're about to be.

And we're going to have to come up with something new.