Peter Zeihan

We start with a completely new set of goals, needing a completely different set of materials and different concentrations, and that changes the geography of what we are concerned about.

So we might, 10 years from now, be more obsessed with Bolivia than we right now are with Saudi Arabia and Iraq.

All depends on where the technology goes.

Right now, the ore comes from one place.

It's primarily processed in China.

It's sent to a third location to be purified to a degree that you can then actually use it.

And then it gets turned into an intermediate product.

So step one, no matter who you are, no matter where you are, that first processing step that's done in China, that has to be done somewhere else.

If we don't get that right, we don't get to try it anything else.

I've been pleasantly surprised about global food systems.

The sanctions against the Russians have not increased.

yet impacted the fertilizer supply system.

And fertilizer as a category, there's like 11 different kinds, but fertilizer as a mass category, Russians are still the world's largest exporter.

Without that, there is no food production in Brazil at all.

And it looks pretty dicey in the Middle East, North Africa, and especially the South Asian zone.

We haven't had that problem.

Uh, in the meantime, the Americans continue to spin up more and more nitrogen fertilizer because that's primarily made from natural gas.

And the Canadians continue to spin up more and more potash fertilizer because they've got that in Saskatchewan.

So we're seeing other suppliers come into the system.

Uh, they realize that it's a race, uh, and so far that's working out.