Ray Kurzweil

We're also making advances in the software.

conservative estimates that we've made about a million fold increase over the 70 years.

So this thing and the overall increase in computation is equal to the hardware times the software.

So we've made a 75,000 million trillion fold increase over the over this 75 years.

That's why we didn't have large language models 70 years ago or even three years ago.

Yeah, they were effective.

It's actually large language models have only been effective for the last six months.

Like a year ago, it really wasn't usable.

You know what's amazing to me, Ray, is the raging debate going all the way back to sort of 1980s, 1990s when I was working on AI.

Raging debate on whether a parameter in a neural net has anything to do with a synapse in a brain.

Because you could count the synapses, you could count the nerve cells, and you could say, OK, there's, what, 300 billion or so.

And then you count the- Roughly 100 billion.

100 trillion synapses.

It could be like, it could take entire years to simulate.

Who knows?

It's also going to land on pretty much exact, within an order of magnitude, exact parity.

A synapse

a parameter in artificial neural net, the IQ coming out the other side is one for one.

I mean, no reason to believe that the algorithm is quite different.

The rate at which synapse will form in the human brain is about 200 calculations per second.