Richard Arnold

Iran would like a longer-term peace, and the United States feels like it should only be a ceasefire until we deal with the nuclear issue.

And there's also the issue of money.

Iran wants, among other things, I think...

Some $6 billion in oil revenue that's frozen in gutter.

Meanwhile, on the United States side, I think a lot of the criticism that the Trump administration had of Obama's nuclear deal is coming back to bite them because the same things are being said about this deal.

So yeah, that was my next question.

So if the Strait opens and we've got a, I don't know, peace deal, ceasefire, whatever you want to call it, but then we get a number with the uranium, 15, 20 years, whatever that is, does that play badly or is everyone just so relieved it's over we don't care anymore?

Right now, the first thing would be to open the straits.

Then you move in probably 60 days to hopefully negotiate something on the nuclear.

And even that would probably not satisfy everybody.

Maybe zero enrichment.

That would be really optimistic.

Ship out all their highly enriched uranium.

That would be great if they'd agree to it.

But that's another step down the road.

And then people would still say, well, what about the missiles?

What about the proxies?

So I think it's going to be a very hard decision.

I think to negotiate.

The other thing I would say is that meanwhile, there's a lot of pressure building up on the Strait of Hormuz because while those negotiations could take months, sometimes years, blocking the Strait of Hormuz is causing a huge amount of economic harm.