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The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Full Show Podcast: 25 May 2026

24 May 2026

Transcription

Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?

0.031 - 9.147 Unknown

No fluff, just facts and fierce debate. The Mike Hosking Breakfast with Defender. Embrace the impossible. News Talks at B.

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11.05 - 25.426 Richard Arnold

The Yield of Prime Minister and Budget Week, the lads in the commentary box, Richard Arnold on Memorial Day weekend, and Steve Price on, well, just another Monday in Australia. Welcome to the week, seven past six. I tell you what, there's a couple of themes that have developed within the Warriors this season.

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25.626 - 42.929 Richard Arnold

One, no matter what happens to the game itself, and these days it's generally heading towards a fairly easy win, but no matter what the journey is, the other side always scores first. What's that about? And so it was with the Dragons. Two, Zleznyak intercepts a ball and runs. If not the length of the field, then certainly a long way. And so it was with the Dragons. What's that about?

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43.309 - 59.858 Richard Arnold

But three, most importantly, we have a consistency about us that we don't seem to have had in over three decades of trying to crack this thing. Every other year. In the years when things looked promising, we would still end up with inexplicable outcomes. We would beat sides we weren't supposed to, then we would lose to sides no one was beating.

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60.359 - 65.348 Richard Arnold

We would be this mad rollercoaster of dramatically brilliant and surprisingly useless. It became a thing.

Chapter 2: What are the key themes for the Warriors this season?

65.588 - 85.334 Richard Arnold

You never knew which side would be turning up. We would talk about being away or at home. Home was a fortress until it wasn't. We were weak on the road until we weren't. We would string two or three victories together, go nuts, and then go and lose inexplicably. Mostly, I mean, even in the good years, we could talk about, you know, remember the possibility of the top eight.

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85.874 - 104.995 Richard Arnold

Would we, wouldn't we make the postseason? If we win this week, we'll be seventh. And if we win three of the last four and the Rabbitohs lose, we could be sixth. And then in the really good years... The top four, the chance of a home playoff. But that's what's changed, you see. In 2026, there was none of that talk. I mean, yes, the season has a way to go.

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105.055 - 127.255 Richard Arnold

And yes, Lord only knows what the injury toll, if there is one, might deliver to our prospects. But the consistency we are seeing week in, week out is new. And what a welcome change. There is no top eight talk because there is no doubt. There, to my mind anyway, isn't even top four talk because there is no doubt. The Panthers this week is an awesome test. Of course, tick that box and you tell me.

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127.235 - 134.59 Richard Arnold

What stands in the way of this being our year? This is our year!

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Chapter 3: How does consistency impact the Warriors' performance?

134.61 - 137.035 Unknown

News of the world in 90 seconds.

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137.155 - 140.502 Richard Arnold

The big question you want to know is, do we have a deal?

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140.701 - 147.213 Mike Hosking

What they are doing now is basically they are threatening to destroy commercial vessels using an international waterway.

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147.454 - 150.88 Richard Arnold

That is illegal under any concept of international law that governs us.

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150.981 - 157.934 Mike Hosking

If we allowed that to become normal, we would be normalizing an unacceptable status quo and setting a dangerous precedent.

157.994 - 179.263 Richard Arnold

Well, he doesn't sound happy. The Iranians, though, sound almost promising. We are ready to assure the world that we are not seeking nuclear weapons. We are not seeking instability in the region. We and those participating in the negotiations will in no way compromise on the country's dignity and honour in this regard.

179.446 - 191.946 Unknown

Any agreement with Iran that isn't subject to ratification by Congress is going, I think, going to be doomed to fail just like the agreement we're trying to replace, which was the failed agreement by Obama.

192.227 - 196.594 Richard Arnold

In the other war, the Russians have gone after Kiev with hypersonic ballistic missiles.

196.827 - 208.444 Dr Jacqueline Roweth

It was one of the most devastating attacks since the beginning of full-scale invasion that included at least 50 missiles and 700 drones attacking Kiev and other cities.

Chapter 4: What recent global events are influencing US-Iran relations?

451.918 - 455.143 Greg Smith

Affluent consumers are still spending, not so much low-income households.

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455.163 - 464.138 Richard Arnold

You can't beat a pair of pale pink Ralph Lauren chinos. Now, we were spending here as well, of course, pre-war.

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464.158 - 484.048 Greg Smith

Yeah, that's right. So we finally got a decent quarter for Kiwi Retailers, but, yes, it calmed before the storm. But we'll look at March quarter retail sales. They were $232 million higher, up 0.9%. Tourism, housing-related spending, supermarkets. Dollar terms, it was up 2.2% from December quarter to March quarter, up 6.1% from a year ago.

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484.088 - 502.196 Greg Smith

Actual volume of goods climbed 4.5% annually, so it wasn't just inflation, Mike. Genuine spending growth beneath it. But, yeah, you look at supermarkets and grocery stores, maybe slightly different story. Sales volumes up 1.7%, but still getting the same amount of food. We're just spending more. Shift towards home brands as well, which perhaps not surprising.

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502.537 - 521.046 Greg Smith

But we're also spending on renovations during the quarter as well, Mike, which was interesting. So hardware, building, garden supplies, that was pretty strong. Accommodation, that was up 6% tourism-related spending, especially in the South Island. Go to the South. Up 2.9% tourism agriculture doing pretty well. Otago to stand out there.

521.928 - 541.077 Greg Smith

Spending not broad-based, Mike, clothing, footwear and accessories. Speaking of footwear, that was down nearly 5%, so households are pulling back in places in the March quarter. And fuel, we're always interested in that. Sales values there are up around about 6%, but you take out the higher prices, fuel volumes barely move.

541.137 - 561.229 Greg Smith

So we're spending more largely because petrol costs more, not because we were driving more. But of course, the important thing in all this, Mike, and we'll see where this peace deal or end of the conflict goes, but these figures mostly capture spending before the full impact of the conflict and the collapse in consumer confidence. More recent electronic card spending points to a much weaker April.

561.327 - 563.492 Richard Arnold

And Oceania, we like that.

564.134 - 584.707 Greg Smith

Yeah, retirement care home. Yeah, it was a really good result last week, actually. So shares up more than 9% on Friday. Record earnings. They slashed debt. They told investors they reckon they can be free cash flow positive next year. So that should be... Return of dividends, underlying earnings up 20%, record $97.7 million. Really important number was debt.

Chapter 5: What are the implications of the US-Iran deal negotiations?

611.353 - 635.708 Greg Smith

It has been a symbol of the retirement market stalling, but 74% of the apartments are now sold. That was versus it being completely empty two years ago. So they've still got $227 million of unsold development stock sitting on the balance sheet. 60% of it is in Auckland. So, yeah, they tried to sort of put a bit of a brave face and say this is a normal part of the cycle.

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635.808 - 657.825 Greg Smith

But they have pointed out that they reduced that stock by $115 million over the past year. Earnings per bed, that was up 40%. But, of course, the sector has been facing cost pressures, particularly in terms of wages and... Operating costs in recent years. But yeah, overall, the sector depends heavily on the housing market stabilising. But yeah, investors like the results. Shares up 9%.

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657.965 - 691.569 Greg Smith

Numbers, please. The Dow Jones, good news for that. We hit a record on Friday. It's up 0.6%, 55.79. S&P 500 up. Nasdaq up 0.2%, FTSE 100 in the UK up 0.2%, Nikkei had a great session up 2.7% in Japan. That's a record as well, 63,339. ASX 200 up 0.4%, 8657. NZX 50 were 1% higher as well. In the currency markets, Kiwi got serious, 58.5%, down 0.4%. A dollar were 82.1%, that's down 0.1%.

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692.07 - 717.767 Greg Smith

British pound, 43.6%. Down again there as well. Japanese year 93.1, down 0.4%. Gold down $33, $4,509 an ounce. Brent oil up $1, 103.59. We'll see where that goes this week. And in terms of what's going on this week, we've got U.S. house prices, U.S. and Aussie inflation, durable goods orders in the U.S. We've got some earnings from Salesforce and Costco. And a lot's going on locally, Mike.

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717.787 - 727.221 Greg Smith

We've got Fischer & Paykel, Reimann, Infratel mainframe earnings and the two big events, RBNZ Wednesday and, of course, the budget on Thursday.

727.401 - 746.027 Richard Arnold

Look forward to it. Good to see you, mate. Greg Smith out at Generate. They are your wealth and KiwiSaver specialists. Some debate around how much money we're going to be spending on AI on an annualised basis. Suggestion over the weekend, it would drop, obviously, globally, top a trillion dollars until Jensen came in. Jensen from NVIDIA said, don't be ridiculous, it's going to get to $400.

746.007 - 759.716 Richard Arnold

$4 trillion a year on AI. It's unreal, eh?

759.736 - 764.286 Unknown

6.22 at Newstalk ZB.

764.941 - 775.774 Richard Arnold

Memorial weekend stateside, and they're in the dumps. Consumer sentiment, 44.8, down from 48.2. You need 50 to be positive, so they haven't been positive. Third month in a row it's gone backwards.

Chapter 6: What challenges are facing the housing market in Christchurch?

838.164 - 843.97 Richard Arnold

Commentators loved it. Russell won it in the end, of course, but old Toto had to have a word. Let's check his flag.

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844.253 - 852.585 Unknown

Yeah, if we need to race like this, then good to know. Kimi, now is the first time to talk about this. We talk about this internally and not on the radio, OK?

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853.687 - 869.991 Richard Arnold

Yeah, so there. Anyway, they're 1-2 for the GP at 8. Liam is 12th. I'm confident he's going to get some points today because he had a very bad weekend. His car fell apart in practice one. And so the sprint he started at the back, he gained some places. So that was all right. He didn't qualify as well as he might have.

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869.971 - 889.92 Richard Arnold

yesterday for today's GP but Lindblad's up there and so therefore the car's reasonable so I think both those cars potentially end up in the top 10 speaking of racing uh Dixon I mean I know it's a long way to go and all that sort of stuff and a lot of weird stuff happens in Indy cars but Dixon currently leads uh the Indy 500 which does lead to the question if he won it

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889.9 - 904.011 Richard Arnold

at his age and stage of his career, where does that go in the year's sporting events? I mean, as we celebrate Auckland FC, obviously, this morning, but if he wins this, how big a deal is that, eh? News for you in a couple of moments here at Newstalk ZB.

906.32 - 908.443 Mike Hosking

Asking the questions others won't.

908.763 - 914.911 Unknown

The Mike Hosking Breakfast with Bailey's Real Estate. 100% Kiwi owned and operated. News Talk ZB.

915.011 - 934.116 Richard Arnold

Kevin just told you that Dixon was leading the Indy 500. At that moment, literally, rain started falling, so the race was off. They'd cracked 100 laps, so once you do that, if you can't get back out on the track, you can win it. So Dixon could have won the Indy 500. They are back out on the track. There is lightning coming, so that might well be an issue, but we'll keep...

934.653 - 951.136 Richard Arnold

We'll keep an eye on that. We'll go to Richard Arnold shortly with this pending deal. 23 minutes away from seven budget week. Pre-show announcements roll on. This time it's Wilding Pines, 79 million over three years. They're estimated to cause 3.6 billion in economic damage over the next 50 years, apparently.

Chapter 7: What are the latest developments in the Indy 500 race?

1425.698 - 1448.137 Richard Arnold

I'm fascinated by this. This tank, is it going to go or not? Could do. Some 50,000 people have been evacuated from around the site of this thing, which could be on the verge either of spilling or exploding with toxic chemicals that are linked to birth defects and all other horrible health defects. This is happening in Garden Grove, so not too far from Disneyland in the LA area.

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Chapter 8: How did Auckland FC achieve their championship victory?

1448.177 - 1459.654 Richard Arnold

California's Governor Newsom has declared a state of emergency. No one seems very sure about how to handle things. The chemical involved is methyl methacrylate, which is used in making plexiglass.

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1459.634 - 1479.313 Unknown

The head of the EPA, Lee Zeldin, is on scene now and says... We're being told that the tank will fail, but there are different scenarios as to what that means. The most catastrophic scenario being an explosion that results in other tanks to explode. That's the reason why you see such a big evacuation that's been done in the surrounding areas.

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1479.293 - 1495.936 Richard Arnold

One concern is that it might set off other tanks as well, as you hear. So they've been thinking of trying to direct the chemical into the ocean through river channels, but that could be environmentally disastrous. One advantage, though, right now is that they've just found a crack in the tank. So says Emergency Chief McGovern.

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1496.096 - 1501.304 Mike Hosking

It's a positive impact for us. Now we're more of a low pressure than a high pressure.

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1501.324 - 1517.669 Richard Arnold

Still, Mike, they're calling this the worst case they have ever seen. Yeah, not surprised. All right, mate, see you Wednesday. Richard Arnold, Stateside. By the way, Memorial Weekend, the AAA, record number of Americans on the road, 45 million are either flying or driving at least 50 miles from their home, which is up on last year, which was another record at 44.8.

1517.79 - 1528.046 Richard Arnold

Airfares are up more than 20%, which is what I keep saying. It doesn't matter what you make an airfare, people are going to pay it. Gas is at $4.55, which is up $1.38 in the last year, so they're still buying it.

1528.067 - 1546.999 Richard Arnold

The survey says a lot of concern about gas prices, but, quote, there's a disconnect between how people feel and how they act, which I probably shouldn't tell you what the latest poll is for Trump and his war. 26% who backed him in 24 now turned on him, said basically the war's been a massive mistake and they're over it. Ten minutes away from seven.

1547.62 - 1551.365 Mike Hosking

The Mike Hosking Breakfast with Defender. News Talk ZB.

1551.525 - 1557.572 Richard Arnold

Under a yellow again in Indy. The weather's going to be a problem, Mike. Oh, you want more Asia? No problem.

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