Richard Clarida

They bring strengths to the job.

But there are a lot of moving parts when you're Fed chair.

And so it'll be interesting to see who they finally select.

You and I remember the day where Phil Graham went after Alan Greenspan on foreign exchange.

Richard Claret, is it appropriate that a Fed chairman speak of dollar dynamics, particularly the whipsaw of President weak dollar and Secretary of Treasury strong dollar?

Great question as usual, Tom.

You know, never say never, but both as a policymaker and as a student of policymaking, the Fed tries to stay out of any and all discussions about exchange rates, and I would expect Jay Powell today, if he's asked that question, to do the same.

Yeah.

No, hi, Torsten.

You know, what's been remarkable is really since either going back to the last hike, which was all the way back in 23 or the first cut in 2024, the 10-year Treasury has been in a range from

roughly four and three quarters to three and three quarters.

A lot's happened in that intervening period.

That importantly reflects much higher real rates than we had pre-pandemic.

So you have seen a shift up in the curve relative to pre-pandemic.

And yes, would expect the curve to continue to steepen.

over time as 10 years stay in that range and as front-end rates come down under the new chair.

Well, I think it reflects the new dynamics, both because potentially a faster productivity growth and fiscal concerns.

It's appropriate that longer dated real yields are higher than they were before.

I think that's an important fact of life.

I mean, the real debate and the real issue is, you know, within the Fed and in the markets is, you know, where's the neutral rate?