Richard Clarida

I think it is more of an uneven story, and I think uncertainty is more relevant, and this may well be a year when the aggregates and averages are hiding a lot of interesting differences in the economy.

Well, of course, only President Trump knows where he's going to land.

What I would say is I know all of them well.

It does appear as though Kevin Hassett and the president have decided that perhaps his best role is to stay as the National Economic Council director, so that leaves...

Governor Waller, Kevin Warsh, and Rick Reeder.

I know each of them well.

I think each of them would be an effective Fed chair, but they bring different strengths and backgrounds to the role.

Chris Waller is a world-class macroeconomist.

He's also a good forecaster and good communicator.

In the case of Kevin Warsh, Kevin Warsh was a Fed governor.

He's had very thoughtful and interesting things to say about changing the Fed as an institution and in particular thoughts on the balance sheet.

And then finally, Rick Reeder is a very respected legendary investor in financial markets and obviously would bring a lot of connectivity to the bond market.

market.

So all three bring something a lot to the table.

It's really going to be the call of President Trump, and we'll see where he ends up.

I think right now it's pretty even in the betting odds.

I guess right now what would be a surprise, there would be two surprises.

One would be if Kevin Hassett decides and the president decides they do want him at the Fed after a week ago saying no.

And then, of course, there is some probability that Scott Besant does it.

He would obviously be an excellent candidate.