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Richard Thaler

👤 Speaker
846 total appearances
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3 Takeaways™
The Winner’s Curse: Why “Winning” Often Means You Just Lost with Nobel Laureate Richard Thaler (#288)

I'll offer her a dollar.

3 Takeaways™
The Winner’s Curse: Why “Winning” Often Means You Just Lost with Nobel Laureate Richard Thaler (#288)

If we were playing that game and I offered you a dollar, would you accept it?

3 Takeaways™
The Winner’s Curse: Why “Winning” Often Means You Just Lost with Nobel Laureate Richard Thaler (#288)

No, I haven't told you what happens yet.

3 Takeaways™
The Winner’s Curse: Why “Winning” Often Means You Just Lost with Nobel Laureate Richard Thaler (#288)

Remember, my job is to make fun of economists.

3 Takeaways™
The Winner’s Curse: Why “Winning” Often Means You Just Lost with Nobel Laureate Richard Thaler (#288)

An economist will think that Lynn will take a dollar and so will predict that the first players will offer a dollar.

3 Takeaways™
The Winner’s Curse: Why “Winning” Often Means You Just Lost with Nobel Laureate Richard Thaler (#288)

You're right that the most common offer is 50%.

3 Takeaways™
The Winner’s Curse: Why “Winning” Often Means You Just Lost with Nobel Laureate Richard Thaler (#288)

And offers of less than 20% are rejected.

3 Takeaways™
The Winner’s Curse: Why “Winning” Often Means You Just Lost with Nobel Laureate Richard Thaler (#288)

So yes, it's $20 and you can actually buy something with $20.

3 Takeaways™
The Winner’s Curse: Why “Winning” Often Means You Just Lost with Nobel Laureate Richard Thaler (#288)

But you are probably thinking, well, that's not fair that he gets 80 and I get 20.

3 Takeaways™
The Winner’s Curse: Why “Winning” Often Means You Just Lost with Nobel Laureate Richard Thaler (#288)

So the profit maximizing offer in that game is about 40.

3 Takeaways™
The Winner’s Curse: Why “Winning” Often Means You Just Lost with Nobel Laureate Richard Thaler (#288)

Most people offer 50.

3 Takeaways™
The Winner’s Curse: Why “Winning” Often Means You Just Lost with Nobel Laureate Richard Thaler (#288)

40 is a little greedy, but most people will accept it.

3 Takeaways™
The Winner’s Curse: Why “Winning” Often Means You Just Lost with Nobel Laureate Richard Thaler (#288)

No, I resist the word rational or irrational.

3 Takeaways™
The Winner’s Curse: Why “Winning” Often Means You Just Lost with Nobel Laureate Richard Thaler (#288)

My take on this is it's not that people are dumb.

3 Takeaways™
The Winner’s Curse: Why “Winning” Often Means You Just Lost with Nobel Laureate Richard Thaler (#288)

It's that the world is hard.

3 Takeaways™
The Winner’s Curse: Why “Winning” Often Means You Just Lost with Nobel Laureate Richard Thaler (#288)

And things like mental accounting, it makes sense for people to have budgets.

3 Takeaways™
The Winner’s Curse: Why “Winning” Often Means You Just Lost with Nobel Laureate Richard Thaler (#288)

If you have a kid in high school that's going to be going off on their own or graduating from college, there's nothing more value you could teach them than how to have a budget.

3 Takeaways™
The Winner’s Curse: Why “Winning” Often Means You Just Lost with Nobel Laureate Richard Thaler (#288)

That part is smart, but whether you should be willing to spend more money if it's from this pot of money than that one, that's not so smart.

3 Takeaways™
The Winner’s Curse: Why “Winning” Often Means You Just Lost with Nobel Laureate Richard Thaler (#288)

So it's complicated and interesting, but not necessarily stupid.

3 Takeaways™
The Winner’s Curse: Why “Winning” Often Means You Just Lost with Nobel Laureate Richard Thaler (#288)

You know, I think you can become aware.