Rob, Luisa, and the 80000 Hours team

I guess.

Okay.

So we're designing sort of a forecasting model here that we think we're going to say, we're going to backtest it and say, well, this approach worked well.

Um, when we, you know, we, we gave it information up to a 1970, it was able to predict what would happen in 1975.

So we're going to hope that a similar, like a similar technique today is going to help us to see what the world would be like in five years time.

I mean, I guess you might think,

the present is different than the past, not only in the sense that it's like the specifics, but also the rate of change or the nature of the kind of change is different than what we're seeing in the historical sample that we have.

So maybe the accuracy will not be so great in future.

Is that a possibility?

I guess underlying the forecasting approach is I guess the idea that smarter AI advice will help us to navigate all of this better, that if we can foresee the failure modes and say conditional on X happening, do you think Y is a likely outcome?

That's going to allow us to act earlier to prevent these negative dynamics beginning and then getting reinforced.

So if people want to contribute to this forecasting thing, how can they get involved?

I guess Alec Radford, you said, is working on it.

Could you just email Alec?

It sounds like that would require substantial compute if you're having to make sure that there are almost no errors in the labeling of these enormous corpuses of text.

Yeah, I imagine that this model would have commercial value as well.

People are very interested in predicting geopolitical events and economic events.

So one reaction you've had is, no, we're not going to become gradually disempowered.

Another reaction is, yes, we will.

And it's going to be a good thing.